On Friday September 29, hundreds of people were celebrating the birthday of the prophet Mohammad outside a mosque in Mastung (Balochistan province), when a suicide bomber detonated an IED that killed at least 52 people. Shortly after, another suicide bomber attacked a mosque to the far north in Hangu (Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province), killing at least five and injuring dozens.  No-one has claimed the attacks yet, but the Islamic State–Khorasan Province (IS-K) is a likely perpetrator.

Although terrorist attacks are common in Pakistan, attacks on civilians have been increasing in recent years.

Terrorism-related deaths recorded by the IWP Global Terrorism Index:

• 2021: 293
• 2022: 643

This is the largest year-on-year increase in a decade.

• Aug 2023: 45 civilian deaths
• Sep 2023: 84

This marks an 87% increase from August.

The source of this increase is the convergence of three ongoing conflicts between the Pakistani state on one hand, and Baloch nationalists, the Pakistani Taliban, and IS-K on the other. This has been exacerbated by the availability of high-quality modern weapons that entered the black market after Washington’s hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, giving them a capability that is equal if not greater than the Pakistani military.

In Balochistan, one of the poorest regions in Pakistan, numerous militant groups are battling for independence from Islamabad. Such groups have intensified their activities in the last year, including nationwide kidnappings, IED attacks, and assassinations, to achieve their secessionist goals. Deaths by one of the deadliest local militant groups, the Balochistan Liberation Army, rose ninefold from 26 in 2021 to 233 in 2022.

The Pakistani Taliban and IS-K are Islamist extremists who conduct such attacks as part of their opposition to the Pakistani state and their campaign to enforce their strict interpretation of Sharia Law in the country or region. The IEP finds that both groups have become more deadly in recent years. Deaths attributed to IS-K in 2022 increased sevenfold (78) from the previous year, while deaths attributed to the Pakistani Taliban doubled (131).

Pakistan Travel Risks

Terrorist Attacks

Amidst the rise in number of attacks is the concern of a larger-scale attack yet to come. Extremist groups all attempt to exert pressure on Islamabad by attacking civilians and members of the security services.  With attacks by all groups increasing, they are likely to compete with one another over the coming months for the limelight, making a spectacle-type attack more likely.

An improved weapons capability also increases the possibility of an attack against aviation targets: in August 2022, the Baloch Liberation Army claimed to have shot down a helicopter that crashed in Balochistan, raising concerns the group possesses some anti-aircraft capability.

This is compounded by the general election expected in Q1 2024, which is likely to be targeted by extremist groups. Particularly high-risk locations over the coming months include military and police installations, mosques, cultural buildings, hotels known to host high-ranking officials and foreign travellers, and busy markets.

Civil Unrest

The terror attack in Mastung, alongside the rise in attacks by Baloch insurgent groups, is likely to lead to an increased military footprint by the Pakistan military nationwide. Deployments are likely to focus on Balochistan province, which threatens to worsen Islamabad’s already tense relations with the Baloch people. Previous such crackdowns by the Pakistan military in Balochistan have included extra-judicial killings and kidnaps of known nationalists. Such actions spark protests and further resentment against Islamabad.

Travel Advice

Travellers to Pakistan should:

• Reconsider all travel to Pakistan in Q1 2024.
• Reconsider all travel to Balochistan and Kyber-Pakhtunkhwa: if travel is inevitable, permission from local authorities must be obtained.
• Make plans before travel for emergency evacuation and remote medical support.
• Engage with a trusted local agent to advise on local security and safe accommodation options.
• Consider employing a trusted security escort for the duration of the visit.
• Carefully plan all travel within major cities considering routes, forms of transport, threats, and evacuation options.
• Avoid all large gatherings, protests, public events and religious processions.
• Avoid travel to religious sites and crowded areas during Christian or Shia holidays and festivals.
• Consider informing local authorities of any plans to travel outside city of residence, as police protection may be advised.
• Not take photographs around major infrastructure or military locations.
• Be vigilant in busy, unsecured areas, as well as around government and military installations.
• Keep a low profile, only carrying minimal valuables, using a hotel safe to store important documents.
• Monitor local media for any updates regarding the local security situation.

by Gary Abbott , Political Risk Analyst, NGS

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