Introduction

Tensions are rising in the Taiwan Strait following a series of confrontations near Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands. The incident began with a collision between the Taiwanese Coast Guard and a Chinese fishing vessel, which led to the deaths of two Chinese nationals. The situation has evolved into incursions into Taiwan’s maritime boundaries and is symbolic of the tense relations between Taipei and Beijing. Taiwan’s response is one that attempts to ensure regional peace, but ultimately threatens a host of operational and security challenges.

Kinmen Collision: Escalating Tensions in Taiwan Strait

On 14 February, the Taiwanese Coast Guard pursued a fishing vessel for entering Taiwan’s restricted waters near the Kinmen Islands. After colliding with the Coast Guard, the Chinese boat capsised, leading to the deaths of two fishermen. A Chinese official dismissed Taiwan's "restricted" waters claim, asserting that Taiwan is a part of China. The Chinese Coast Guard then announced that it would increase its patrols around Kinmen, to “safeguard fishermen's lives and property”. On 19 February, the Chinese Coast Guard boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat near Kinmen, marking the first such incident in Taiwanese waters. Three Chinese vessels then entered Taiwan’s waters around its Matsu islands, around 150 miles north-east of Kinmen. Such actions have continued into this week and show no signs of stopping.

Taiwan Strait Dilemma: Taiwan's Strategy and Its Tactical Toll

To reduce tensions, Taiwan has opted for appeasement over asserting its sovereignty. Taiwan’s Defence Minister rejected a military response, stating “let’s handle the matter peacefully”, and that “not escalating tensions is our response”. This posture sets a dangerous precedent that can lead to a host of likely operational consequences.

Greater Maritime Risks

Taiwan’s toleration of the temporary detainment of one of its vessels is likely to embolden Beijing. This makes repeats likely and could be used by Beijing as leverage against Taipei. Given that Taipei has instructed its vessels to not stop for Chinese vessels, there are increased maritime risks. This has increased the likelihood of confrontation with the Chinese Coast Guard, which could end in rammings, the use of water cannons, and civilian casualties.

Further Territorial Encroachment

Failure to enforce its maritime boundaries emboldens Beijing and threatens the gradual erosion of Taiwan’s sovereignty. This gives Beijing greater strategic leverage and increases the likelihood of the seizure of Taiwan’s outlying islands (such as Kinmen, Matsu and Penghu Islands). Whilst still unlikely, it is possible and could result in civilians and tourists being caught in the crossfire. Such an engagement would cause considerable disruption to security and operations on such islands but is likely to have limited impact on mainland Taiwan. China is incentivised to keep any conflict isolated, for fear of involving the U.S. and its Western allies.

Civil Unrest and Protests

The seizure of outlying Taiwanese islands would likely spark civil unrest in China and Taiwan. Such protests are most likely in the major urban centres and could attract thousands of people (particularly in Taiwan). Depending on the scale, protests in Taiwan would be vulnerable to causing travel disruption (be it on roads or public transportation). They would also be vulnerable to turning violent, over the anger from Taipei’s inability to preserve its sovereignty. For China, protests would likely be nationalistic, and therefore likely to be tolerated by Chinese authorities.

Travel and Operational Disruption

Tensions between Taiwan and Beijing are at their highest in recent history. This means that relations are vulnerable to disengaging at short notice. In the event that relations continue to deteriorate, supply chains and Taiwanese maritime and aviation routes could be ruptured with little warning. On the latter, travel between China and Taiwan could be halted, and some localised travel restrictions implemented. Such measures could disrupt business operations, whilst impacting regional contingency plans. Early indicators of such scenarios include the deaths of members of the Navy or the seizure of Taiwanese islands.

Security Advice

• Review travel safety protocols, such as advising against tourism on and near Taiwan’s outlying islands;
• Consider the use of international assistance providers for travel in the Taiwan Strait and South and East China Seas;
• Ensure that evacuation plans are up to date and understood by relevant employees. Consider the use of drills to ensure preparedness;
• Monitor travel advisories and restrictions issued by governments;
• Implement travel contingency plans, to account for sudden changes due to political or security developments;
• Review supply chains and consider possible operational consequences, particularly for those reliant on cross-strait relations.

by Gary Abbott Risk Analyst, NGS

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