The National Terrorism Threat Advisory System has five advice levels to provide clear advice regarding acts of terrorism in Australia. The National Terrorism Threat Level is reviewed, depending on the security environment and the most up-to-date intelligence. In general, these levels are;

"CERTAIN"- 100% Assessed chance of occurring

"EXPECTED" 75% - 99% Assessed chance of occurring

"PROBABLE" 50% -74% Assessed chance of occurring

"POSSIBLE" 25% - 49% Assessed chance of occurring

"NOT EXPECTED" 0-24% Assessed chance of occurring

The Australian Government provides advice on the threat level, where the threat is coming from, potential targets and how a terrorist act may be carried out.

Government Public advice

From The National Security Website -

https://www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/national-threat-level/current-national-terrorism-threat-level

"The National Terrorism Threat Level for Australia is PROBABLE. Credible intelligence, assessed by our security agencies indicates that individuals or groups have developed both the intent and capability to conduct a terrorist attack in Australia. The public should continue to exercise caution and report any suspicious incidents to the National Security Hotline by calling 1800 1234 00. Life-threatening situations should be reported to the police by calling Triple Zero (000)."

The latest on the most identifiable threat

The latest most likely assessed threat comes from individuals who believe in an extremist interpretation of the Islamic faith that is particularly violent. These small groups are influenced by discourse and propaganda released by terrorist groups like the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The most likely targets for these attacks are State and Federal government authorities, as well as the military, police and security agencies. That said, indiscriminate attacks directly on communities are still a concern, and the risk to the general public in Australia remains steady. Terrorists target public places and innocent victims to drive their agenda - news & notoriety, and to create as much fear for the perceived enemies as possible. It's assessed that the most likely type of attack, in Australia, would be from a "lone wolf" or small group of individuals using a range of primary weapons such as knives, machetes and even cars to conduct lethal attacks. However, homemade explosives remain a favoured terrorist weapon globally. It is also assessed that high-powered firearms could be sourced through legal and illicit channels.

Compiled by,

Aden Hawke

Manager - Intelligence, Security and Vetting

Empire Protection Pty Ltd.

Further Resources