An article by Mehdi Beigi@ Radio Farda

On January 4, 2024, a day after the deadly explosions at a commemorative ceremony in Kerman, Iran, marking the fourth anniversary of Qasem Soleimani’s assassination, the Afghanistan branch of the Islamic State group, known as IS Khorasan, claimed responsibility for the explosions. The so-called Islamic State group issued a statement claiming two of their suicide bombers had attacked Shiites near the grave of Qasem Soleimani, killing a number of them and wounding some others. The group described the former Qods Force commander as someone "who was involved in dozens of massacres against Muslims in Iraq and Syria." At least 91 people were killed in the explosions, and ISIS described this as a strong security blow to the Iranian government. The group also published a photo showing two fighters who ISIS claims had carried out the attack. Later, they also published a video of these individuals, in which they took an oath of allegiance to the leader of ISIS.

 After the attack, Iranian media sources indicated that the attack involved 'two briefcase bombs' detonated remotely at the entrance of the ceremony. A witness mentioned one bomb placed in a trash bin, while another was reportedly inside a car. However, on January 4, Irna, the government news agency, reported that investigators suspected the possibility of suicide bombers. The deputy governor of Kerman province characterized the incident as a ‘terrorist attack.’ Examining the claims of IS K, Radio Farda has interviewed Aaron Y. Zelin, a fellow researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Regarding the credibility of IS K, Aaron tells Radio Farda that their claim is quite credible. Comparing this attack to previous IS attacks inside Iran, Aaron Zelin says, “The main thing is that they have been trying to do a mass casualty in these attacks. A lot of them are usually in places where there are many people. In many cases, they have targeted shrines and mausoleums which, from their perspective, ideologically speaking, they view them against Islam.”

 Double suicide explosions in Kerman once again demonstrated the vulnerability of Iran's security structure to terrorist operations inside Iran's territory. But given all the security measures and advances that Iranian officials time to time boast about, how was ISIS able to carry out such a massive attack? Aaron Zelin, who is also the founder of Jihadology.net, a website that publishes analytical insights regarding Jihadi groups and movements, says it is not possible to have 100 percent security for any given country. Regarding this attack by IS K, he adds, “Part of it is because Iran over the past three months has probably been focusing a lot more on the issue related to Israel after the 7th of October attack (to this country) by Hamas. They have been managing various proxy groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, etc. Therefore, it is plausible that they put fewer resources into intelligence and the Jihadi movements like ISIS, and that is how the attack has plausibly gone through.”

 ISIS has always accused Qasem Suleimani, the former commander of IRGC Qods Force, of being responsible for the killings of many ISIS members in Iraq and Syria before his assassination four years ago. The attack might look like a sort of revenge, especially that ISIS carried it out on his commemoration day, which may leave a dark memory in his supporters' minds. But regarding the main reasons for the attack, ISIS has always hated Shiites, especially those in Iran. They view them as one of their biggest enemies, along with those Muslim Sunnis who do not follow the exact ideologies of ISIS members. But in terms of strategic factors, Aaron Zelin believes ISIS had probably thought that Iran would blame the attack on Israel, although IS was involved, and therefore that could have created more chaos in the region and more war between the two countries. Aaron adds, “In that situation when there is a vacuum, it provides opportunities for groups like ISIS to take advantage of, and this is sort of a longer plan for IS.

 What do we know about IS Khorasan?

ISIS–K, much like its counterparts in different regions, aims to disrupt and topple sovereign states in the historic Khorasan area to establish an Islamic caliphate governed by its strict, fundamentalist Islamist principles. The term 'Khorasan' denotes the notion of Greater Khorasan, signifying a historical and cultural region situated on the eastern expanse of the Iranian Plateau, acting as a transitional zone between Western and Central Asia.

The group has been responsible for several attacks against civilians in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Notable incidents include a suicide bombing in Kabul during the U.S. withdrawal in August 2021, resulting in the deaths of 13 American military personnel and at least 169 Afghans. Additionally, twin suicide bombings at election rallies in Pakistan in July 2018 claimed the lives of at least 131 people, and twin bombings in downtown Kabul in July 2016 resulted in the deaths of 97 Hazara protestors.

 Today, ISIS–K is entangled in a prolonged, low-intensity conflict with the Taliban government. Following the U.S. withdrawal, ISIS–K has redirected its focus from actively opposing the United States to discrediting, destabilizing, and toppling the Taliban regime, aiming to establish its envisioned Islamic caliphate. In response, the Taliban undertakes efforts to confront ISIS–K militants through aggressive raids, safeguard foreign diplomats and investors from ISIS–K attacks, and downplays the presence of ISIS in public statements to attract foreign recognition and investment.

 Aaron Zelin, a fellow researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Studies, tells Radio Farda about an interesting paradox regarding IS Khorasan and Its opponent Taliban: “The group primarily based in Afghanistan, since two and a half years ago when the Taliban came into power, the IS K group got weaker in Afghanistan. However, we have seen that their external operations grew a lot in recent years. There is this paradox that the Taliban cracks down on this network that is fighting them locally, but for some reasons, they are not going after these networks that are targeting other countries abroad, whether it is Pakistan, India, Tajikistan, Iran, Turkey, Germany, etc.”

 IS K operations are transnational, and there are individuals who help them in other countries by providing them resources and intelligence. This makes it difficult for any country to stop their attacks.

 Is it likely that IS K attacks Iran again?

Ali Afshari, a political analyst and human rights activist living in America, in his article published on Radio Farda’s website, says: “The attack in Kerman showed that there is basically no plan to deal with terrorism as part of crisis management inside the country. The expansion of the number of illegal weapons in the country, neglecting the security of the country's eastern borders, and the shift in the country's security priorities have turned insecurity in the country into a serious problem, in such a way that a considerable part of the citizens do not feel safe and have taken self-care.”

 Aaron Zelin does not foresee any large-scale attacks by IS inside Iran, but he says that once in a while, there might be some low-scale attacks where there is security flaws. Aaron adds, “Iran will definitely go after IS local networks, but beyond that, it is hard to say what they can do. Because they are basically based in Afghanistan, and I do not think that the Taliban would want Iran to start carrying out drone attacks or something like that within Afghan sovereign territory.” Aaron Zelin believes that Iran and the Taliban have had close relationships during the past two and a half years, and he thinks Iran does not want to disturb that relationship at this time.

Continuing Challenges and Future Outlook

Despite the apparent weakening of IS Khorasan in Afghanistan, the recent attack in Kerman highlights the ongoing challenges Iran faces in securing its territory. In conclusion, the recent attack in Kerman serves as a stark reminder of the persistent threat posed by terrorist organizations, even in the face of evolving geopolitical dynamics. As Iran grapples with the aftermath of the Kerman attack, the challenge lies in striking a balance between domestic security measures and navigating complex regional relationships to mitigate the risk of future incidents.