By Ravi Kumar S

Over the past two and a half centuries, the world has experienced five technological revolutions, according to economic historian Carlotta Perez. Each revolution occurs about every half century, brings together multiple interrelated technologies, and produces profound socio-economic shifts. In the early stages of these revolutions, notes Perez, people often fear that skills, jobs, and industries will be upended—and for good reason.

Given this long historical pattern, will generative AI (gen AI), with capabilities so different from any of its predecessor technologies, follow the same trajectory? Will its benefits go mostly to the economically privileged who already have full access to and familiarity with digital technologies?

As gen AI begins to move into the mainstream in 2024, I believe this technology could break that trend and become an equalizer for society broadly.

Here are a few reasons why. To begin, gen AI has qualities that depart from prior technology waves, such as its outsized productive power. In partnership with Oxford Economics , Cognizant analyzed the economic impact of generative AI in the U.S. and expects this technology to add as much as $1 trillion to US GDP and boost worker productivity by 10% and total factor productivity by 3.5% by 2032. Increasing the economic pie is broadly viewed as a key route to prosperity for all.

Gen AI is also simple to use. In the past, people needed to know a programming language to efficiently use AI. No longer. Knowledge of a natural language is now sufficient to use some of the most powerful AI tools available. As AI expert Andrej Karpathy observed, “the hottest new programming language is English.” Therefore, solving problems using AI has become much easier and more broadly accessible, aided also by the ability to use some forms of gen AI for free, such as Microsoft Bing and Google Bard.

No question, as gen AI is adopted increasingly by businesses, workers will face a major adjustment. Last year, most workplace tasks could not be assisted or automated by generative AI. But by 2032, Cognizant’s research predicts that gen AI will be capable of both influencing a greater share of tasks and automating them to a greater degree.

Our research shows that over the next 10 years, 90% of jobs will experience some degree of disruption. Everyone from entry-level number crunchers to heads of business units and even C-suite executives will see their jobs evolve over the next decade.

But in contrast to prior computerization waves, the productivity gains associated with gen AI seem to go disproportionately to less-experienced, lower-skilled workers.  In a recent National Bureau of Economic Research working paper titled “Generative AI at Work” the authors (Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li, and Lindsey Raymond) conclude that gen AI benefits the less skilled because “gen AI systems work by capturing and disseminating the patterns of behavior that characterize the most productive [customer support] agents, including knowledge that has eluded automation from earlier waves of computerization.” Gen AI seems to speed individual learning by enabling novice workers to progress more rapidly along the experience curve compared to those who don’t use this capability.

Likewise, a working paper from MIT titled “Experimental Evidence on the Productivity Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence” suggests that “inequality between workers decreases as ChatGPT compresses the productivity distribution by benefiting low-ability workers more.”

If, as this early research suggests, gen AI may asymmetrically benefit the less skilled and less productive, what societal changes could result? We can recall educational reformer Horace Mann’s observation that “education, beyond all other devices of human origin, is the great equalizer of the conditions of men, the balance wheel of the social machinery.” Could gen AI become a new balance wheel of society?

I believe so, especially if we can demystify how gen AI works, be transparent about how and where it’s being deployed, commit to mitigating any detrimental effects of the technology, and, above all, roll out a new generation of reskilling programs on a vast scale.

How might this happen? Rather than an optional add-on to an employee’s work life, reskilling will need to become an essential part of everyone’s workday. Businesses could partner with higher education institutions to continually revamp curricula in select skill areas. Organizations could collaborate with policy makers, government officials, and regulators to create shared “academy” systems that would not only teach gen AI skills but establish new job tracks for people in roles where many tasks are likely to be fully automated by gen AI.

Keep in mind that gen AI can be deployed flexibly to accentuate people’s existing strengths while deemphasizing their weaknesses, thereby enabling an array of cognitive capabilities to be used in a wider range of roles.

Building greater trust in AI will also be crucial to ensuring its beneficial effects prevail. That’s why Cognizant recently surveyed 1,000 US consumers to discern how the level of trust and understanding of gen AI affects how they perceive this technology. While split between enthusiasm and concern about gen AI, consumers are overwhelmingly positive that it will make other technologies easier to use. More than half said gen AI will increase access to innovation and benefit education. And more than half also agreed that getting high-paying jobs will be easier because people can use gen AI to supplement and boost their skills. The majority, however, said the widespread use of gen AI could result in greater competition for jobs—perhaps a sign of gen AI’s ability to democratize skills.

Recognizing gen AI’s potential to greatly expand our knowledge, skills, and productivity, it seems this technology could, over time, bring many more people into more highly compensated work. Aided by a gen AI assistant, we can imagine a nurse taking over more tasks from doctors, while doctors have more time to focus on complex medical cases and intensive patient interaction, enhancing the overall quality of care.

To be sure, we are early in gen AI’s evolution. Still, the optimist in me believes this technology could significantly boost social mobility by bridging the longstanding digital divide and providing more people with access to good-paying jobs, while shrinking the wage premium granted to the most credentialed. As a corollary, gen AI may also depress the compensation of some jobs held by the most educated by automating the knowledge work that used to be their exclusive domain. Therefore, by raising the socio-economic floor while lower the ceiling, perhaps gen AI may, over time, become the new balance wheel of society.