What does a sustainable future look like? What direction do we want to take together? And which steps can we already take now to head into that direction? I am working on a book about a more prosperous global future and occupy myself with questions like these on a daily basis.

And then there was coronavirus. An abundance of knowledge, theories, priorities and thoughts tumbled through my mind. Through yours as well, perhaps. And all of a sudden writing a book about the future seemed absurd. As if people are caring for that now! The daily dose of uncanny news consumed me. The government is delaying climate measures, understandably. Pushing back my book felt like a natural response. Should I even be focussing on this right now?

But blood is thicker than water; I wanted to know how we can avoid outbreaks like this one going forward. Understanding what has sparked it, creating a prevention strategy. So I started researching. One of my first questions was: is it rightful that the focus on this coronavirus pushes my attention to the climate aside? My next question: is there a relation between the outbreak of a pandemic and our impact on nature? And if so, how does that work? I gladly share my findings with you, because you might be walking around with similar questions.  

RISKS

This image of the World Economic Forum from 2019 gives a risk estimation of potential threats to the economy (in which you can extrapolate ‘economy’ to ‘humanity’). A pandemic is listed as well, but in a fairly ‘reasonable’ place. The WEF thought the odds would be low and the impact mediocre. Was their estimation noticeably far off? Or are the risks of threats listed above a pandemic simply even bigger?

How does this pandemic relate to climate change? Coronavirus prevails right now but when I stop and think about it, I start noticing a few things that might offer a different perception:

1. We can stop Coronavirus. Within a year or two we will have medicine and vaccines, so there is legitimate hope for a solution. Climate change however, carries irreversible effects for the well-being of humans (plus the additional 8 million other species on our planet).
2. Climate change will have at least as much impact as Coronavirus is having. We are currently in the middle of our planet’s sixth mass-extinction. You could say that as a species, we made it as far as the last dinosaurs did. Coronavirus is hitting us as an unprecedented crisis in a time of peace and prosperity, like Merkel rightfully pointed out. Imagine what we have coming for us if we continue to erode our planet like we are currently doing.
3. Our brain does not cope well with gradual changes. Coronavirus happened pretty much overnight. It came as a bolt in the blue and therefore forced us to act adequately. Climate change and the damaging of our nature is happening in a slow, progressive way. I wonder how we would respond if our climate suddenly changed. Or imagine that 60% of all animal species would have died overnight, instead of the past 50 years. Would be as shocked? Would we intervene the way we are doing now? The fact that our environmental footprint is impacting the world oh-so gradually is dangerous, because our brain is incapable of picking up on all the signs.

Looking at the graph almost makes you wonder if the pandemic is in the right spot, because what we are experiencing right now is already really intense. If anything, hopefully this crisis will at least inspire us to take our progressive and irreversible impact on nature, climate and our environment, as serious as we are taking coronavirus. 

ARE WE GOING TO SEE MORE OF PANDEMICS SUCH AS THIS ONE?

The answer is yes, without a doubt. Disease outbreaks are already occurring frequently and are spreading faster than ever due to the fact that we are living in a densely populated world, with intensive livestock farming - as demonstrated in the picture below.

This is a dangerous combination, because viruses are able to spread very easily with so many hosts huddled together. In a natural setting a virus is unlikely to be fatal, because it has no opportunity to spread. In the case of a factory farm this is obviously completely different. Here the spreading happens so quickly, that it takes on a much more aggressive form. This also explains why we have been experiencing more similar virus outbreaks ever since we’ve been ramping up cattle farming. 

Coronaviruses such as Sars and Mers, are being transmitted from an animal host onto humans. Covid-19 is in all likelihood emerged after human consumption of bats or pangolins, the source is still not determined. Sars came from civet cats and Mers was transmitted from dromedaries to humans. The influenza virus originated from birds and pigs. Alongside we have outbreaks of diseases limited to animals, such as swine flu and avian flu. Such viruses have the capability to mutate into a human virus, as demonstrated in the past. 

Now coronavirus did not transfer from cattle to humans, but from contact with wild animals. However, the probability of a next pandemic rubbing off on humans from cattle to humans is big. It happens frequently. Moreover, the preventive mass-administering of antibiotics to livestock creates a health-hazard because we are cultivating multi-resistant bacteria. 

From a health perspective it is high time to reconsider our relation to animals. We can increase the safety of our food system by coming up with alternatives for intensive livestock farming. In other words; consuming less meat and animal products. Besides that, it’s better to leave wild animals alone as a whole. Let the bat be.

IS THERE A CORRELATION BETWEEN PANDEMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT? 

Is there also a possibility that a pandemic is more likely to break out because of the destruction of nature? Well yes, in many different ways even. Viruses are part of natural ecosystems. When these systems are being affected and imbalanced, the host - or the virus itself - starts prospecting new opportunities. Guess what the first thing is that a virus can cling onto outside of its own ecosystem? Cattle or people.

For example: bats that were driven out by deforestation take refuge in the outskirts of Congo, which led to the outbreak of Ebola. An alternate route: When nature scatters, hosts and viruses evolve each in their own way, when they live inside their scattered ‘piece of forest’. This causes the development of many more variants of the same original virus, increasing the chances one will eventually evolve into a deadly disease for humans. This means that abusing nature magnifies the likelihood for a pandemic. That protecting our environment is a way to protect ourselves from recurring repetition of the crisis we currently face.

IN CONCLUSION

Preserving nature helps to decrease the probability of outbreaks such as coronavirus. We could revise our intensive livestock system and reduce cattle. Alongside it’s important we put a halt to the demolition of nature, such as deforestation and desertification. As we’ve seen sustainability is important in itself, because the impact of climate change, environmental pollution and damage to nature is immense and irreversible. 

WHAT CAN I DO?

First and foremost I allow myself to not get consumed by the daily news. It’s impossible to fathom everything at once and that’s okay. If you feel the same way: I feel you. But I do hope that further down the road we can gather some takeaways from this corona crisis. 

Now we’ve all collectively started living super sustainable in the slipstream of coronavirus, you might stick with some habits that you actually appreciate. Maybe now that you’re at home, your perception of what is important in your life radically changes. Bye-bye to toilet paper worries - hello to health, family and friends. You might be contemplating about how to design your life. Maybe you want to contribute to a safer future for humanity on this planet. Maybe you want to effect change. You could use this time to read about our environment. Planning to live your daily life more sustainable and consciously. 

The most obvious thing you can effectuate for a safer future in relation to a pandemic, is to move to a plant-based diet. If you are ready to take it some steps further, then the “impact top 10” that I created for my first book could function as a useful guideline. (See the two pics below.)

Wishing everyone the best. Stay safe!

Babette

Many thanks to Sam Lebens for translating the original Dutch article into English.

And thanks to Rick and Annemein from 16Mammals for the translated artwork.