The ongoing Russian military aggression made a dramatic impact on the whole life in Ukraine, shocked the economic environment in the country, and considerably reshaped the businesses of the earlier restructured debtors. During the first months of the war, the borrowers' businesses were sharply impacted: a lot of assets appeared in the occupied territories or were destroyed, logistic connections were interrupted, the national currency was devaluated, regulatory restrictions were implemented, etc. On the later stage, the borrowers tried to adapt their business to reality and faced other difficulties: drop in consumption, inflation, change of supply chains, deficiency of professional staff due to mobilization, electricity interruption, etc.

The first step in restructuring, particularly in the Gulf region, is to assess the impact of external uncertainty on your objectives, assumptions, and projections. Given the region's dynamic market conditions and regulatory landscape, it’s essential to identify the sources and magnitude of uncertainty—such as fluctuating oil prices, geopolitical risks, and regulatory changes—and how these factors may influence your restructuring goals. To effectively assess this impact, start by analyzing how these uncertainties affect your KPI's. For instance, if you're restructuring to expand in Saudi Arabia, consider how potential regulatory shifts might impact your company formation or operational timelines

When the military aggression of Russia against Ukraine started, we as the local creditor reacted immediately to support the debtors and the existing restructurings: a grace period ("credit holidays") was provided first on a portfolio basis for the whole debtors (during the first 2–3 months when the level of impact was unclear) and then on an individual basis (given the particular interruption of the debtor's business, financial situation of the individual borrower, location and loss of assets). In general, all borrowers were split among 3 categories: "red" (high impact or full destruction of the business), "yellow" (moderate impact), and "green" (strong ability to recover business). Till the end of 2022, we had more or less clear picture.

Start by explaining how external factors affect your revised expectations, targets, and timelines. Transparent communication is key. For instance, if new regulations in Saudi Arabia affect your company’s restructuring timeline, this must be clearly communicated to both internal teams and external partners to avoid misalignment. Engage stakeholders in discussions about the implications of these changes and how they will impact their roles and responsibilities. This ensures that everyone understands the rationale behind the adjustments and is committed to the new direction. Aligning these groups with the updated strategy is critical to maintaining momentum and ensuring the success of the restructuring efforts.

Agile Restructuring. After 6–9 months of the ongoing war, we managed to adapt the restructuring processes to the new reality, having an understanding of the (a) impact of the war on individual debtors and (b) ability of the debtor to recover its business in the current environment. Several moderate amendments to the restructuring plans were initiated, though in general, forecasting and amendments to the restructuring conditions and the respective repayment schedules are currently focused on the short-term horizon. I call it "Agile Restructuring".

Outsourcing restructuring to trusted partners boosts project success by leveraging their expertise in Gulf regulations and market dynamics. These partners ensure compliance, manage risks, and communicate effectively with stakeholders, maintaining alignment throughout the process. Their local knowledge streamlines implementation, reduces delays, and allows your team to focus on core business operations. Additionally, their objective perspective helps in making informed decisions and addressing issues that internal teams might miss. Overall, their support enhances the efficiency and effectiveness of the restructuring effort.