Analisar o histórico ajuda a entender a sazonalidade da demanda, mas não garante, por si só, a estabilidade dos estoques. É essencial levar em conta também o desempenho atual e as tendências futuras. Além disso, é importante ficar atento às dificuldades e limitações dos fornecedores, pois essas informações são úteis para definir um estoque de segurança mais eficiente.

Trend projection + purpose exchange between buyer and supplier is a solution for season inventory problem. Focus is as much collaboration as you could with each specialised producer practicing the uniform statement ideology.

Accurate Demand Forecasting Use historical sales data and market trends to predict demand accurately. Incorporate data analytics, machine learning models, and external factors (like weather or events) to refine forecasts.

Utilize historical data for the period combined with forecasted demand expectations and place orders so inventory is on the floor and ready to ship.

Pinpoint Demand Fluctuations: Identify specific periods when demand increases or decreases. This could be tied to holidays, weather patterns, or industry trends. Forecast Future Demand: Use trend data to predict when demand will rise, allowing you to adjust inventory levels proactively rather than reacting to shortages. Prepare in Advance: Stock up on high-demand items before peak seasons and reduce inventory during slower periods to optimize costs and avoid overstocking.

Implement Just-in-Time Inventory Align inventory replenishment with actual demand by working closely with suppliers to receive goods only when needed. This reduces the holding cost and minimizes overstock or stockouts.

It is crucial to understand where the fluctuation coming from, is it a wrong forecasting, is it an exceptional event that is associated with an event that the demand manager has not foreseen? Or is it a new competition who have recently entered or offered something exceptional? In all cases this must have been available as info but was not fully addressed Having a live ordering pattern that is related to a plan that we amend as we go is important to avoid stock outs or excessive stock

Establish Safety Stock Levels Maintain a safety stock cushion to cover unexpected spikes in demand. Calculate safety stock based on demand variability, lead times, and service level targets.

Utilize Inventory Management Software Use advanced inventory management software to monitor stock levels in real time, automate reordering, and identify slow-moving items that could be discounted or returned.

Estabeleça um ciclo regular para revisar a previsão de demanda e o forecast. Com essas revisões frequentes, é possível ajustar a previsão de acordo com as oscilações, tanto para mais quanto para menos, ajudando a evitar faltas ou excessos de estoque.

Adopt a Flexible Supply Chain Collaborate with suppliers to create flexible contracts that allow for adjustments in order quantities or delivery schedules. Build relationships with multiple suppliers to reduce dependency on a single source.

Through my work, I've effectively managed seasonal demand fluctuations to drive sales and profitability. By analyzing historical sales data and applying ABC analysis, I prioritize inventory, ensuring optimal stock levels and accurate forecasting. This approach enhances ordering efficiency, negotiates better supplier terms, and leverages technology for automation. Continuous review of forecasting accuracy and supplier performance ensures adaptability. Additionally, I manage excess stock by understanding each location's needs and using S&OP meetings to strategize liquidation. Optimizing safety stock reduces financial impacts, boosts sales achievement, and increases profit through a responsive and efficient inventory system.