This study explores the development of Libya’s security situation following the so-called Arab spring in 2011 up to September 2015. It provides an overview of Libya’s main warring parties and the struggles they are engaged in. The analysis covers both domestic groups and the main external states. The study finds that the security dynamics are changing quickly and that Libya has many political hurdles and security challenges to overcome before a more durable situation of stability can be achieved. Two findings are clear: first, Libya’s conflict needs to be seen in the context of the wider regional power struggle in which foreign actors (states and groups alike) have interests in shaping Libya’s future; and, second, that Libya cannot deal with its security challenges alone without comprehensive outside political and military support by the United Nations and other regional organisations. Key words: Libya, Arab spring, Qaddafi, North Africa, Jihadism, armed movements, civil war, Arab League, African Union, security policy, Middle East, EUNAVFOR MED operation SOPHIA, Africa, African security.

2015

The anti-Qaddafi movement that had spontaneously combusted the Libyan revolution in February 2011 was a demonstration of a leaderless revolutionary spirit that rejected the old political elite and state institutions altogether. Thuwar, or revolutionaries, came to represent an unorganized and unofficial vanguard of that spirit. These overwhelmingly young people vetted their frustrations, anger and disappointment through ever increasing violence as they were met with Qaddafi’s security and military forces. The Western power’s kneejerk reaction to the rapid deterioration of security situation in Libya during August 2011 to intervene militarily (under the approval of the united Nation Security Council) tipped the conflict scale in the favor of the revolutionaries bringing effectively the end of the Qaddafi regime. Soon thereafter the leaderless movement fractioned into local militias protecting their narrow interests, organized military units under the competing political opposition gro...

Cosmos/EUI Working Papers, 2012

The project addresses the role of civil society organizations (CSOs) in democratization processes, bridging social science approaches to social movements and democracy. The project starts by revisiting the "transitology" approach to democratization and the political process approach to social movements, before moving towards more innovative approaches in both areas. From the theoretical point of view, a main innovation will be in addressing both structural preconditions as well as actors' strategies, looking at the intersection of structure and agency. In an historical and comparative perspective, I aim to develop a description and an understanding of the conditions and effects of the participation of civil society organizations in the various stages of democratization processes. Different parts of the research will address different sub-questions linked to the broad question of CSOs' participation in democratization processes: a) under which (external and internal) conditions and through which mechanisms do CSOs support democratization processes? b) Under which conditions and through which mechanisms do they play an important role in democratization processes? c) Under which conditions and through which mechanisms are they successful in triggering democratization processes? d) And, finally, what is the legacy of the participation of civil society during transitions to democracy on the quality of democracy during consolidation? The main empirical focus will be on recent democratization processes in EU member and associated states. The comparative research design will, however, also include selected comparisons with oppositional social movements in authoritarian regimes as well as democratization processes in other historical times and geopolitical regions. From an empirical point of view, a main innovation will lie in the development of mixed method strategies, combining large N and small N analyses, and qualitative comparative analysis with in-depth, structured narratives.

Politeja

The developments of the Arab Spring of 2011 extended, among others, to Libya. As a consequence of the armed anti-government uprising supported militarily by the air forces of the Western powers (under the auspices of NATO), the regime of Colonel Muammar al-Qaddafi, who has controlled the state since the 1969 military coup, was overthrown. The collapse of the current regime has initiated the path to the social, political and economic transformation of the Libyan state. However, the rivalry of local political forces which is a reflection of tribal, regional and ideological divisions, prevented the emergence of an effective political system. As a result, Libya has evolved into a dysfunctional state and the processes of internal destabilization and lack of state borders control generate threats also for the international environment of the country (West Africa, East Africa, Europe).

IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 2019

This essay offers a basic framework for analyzing the Libyan democratization by looking at the deficit of a modern (post-modern) political transition élite and the potential of civil society.The Libyan transition to democracy has covered an extensive time frame during which the state has regressed politically. After the transatlantic exit, all that remained was tribal politics and military weakness. Thus, the absence of checks and balances, which rendered the country resistant to democratic reform, yet vulnerable to civil war.The Jamahiriya (state of the masses) functioned along relatively weak administrative and security institutions, as such the National Transitional Council (NTC) hoped, upon assuming power, to reconstruct major state structures and embark on a seamless transition to democracy, within one year. However, almost eight years following the end of the Qaddafi regime,and Libya is still in a transition phase. The Libyan transition is remarkable because this is the state"s first democratic and state building attempt since independence.Also, the nuances of the Libyan transition will greatly impact the type of democracy that will eventually materialize.

A major question, and threat, facing Libya today is the eventuality of a disappearance of the state as it has been known for the past 60 years. There is a subtle and well determined cohort of people in and outside the country that are profiting from the dire situation and are actively seeking to stall attempts to reconstruct the state’s institutions and bring a modicum of law and order to the country.

Middle East Policy, 2020

This article examines changes in Libya's internal security, politics, economy and international relations since the start of the revolution in February 2011. Our main argument is that in order to transition from authoritarianism to democracy significant change in each of these four, mutually reinforcing, areas is needed. Drawing on data collected through media analysis and field work, we offer a discussion of the nature of change in Libya and how far the country has democratised. We claim that significant changes in Libya's political system and foreign relations have taken place since 2011 that reinforce the process of democratisation. Within the political system these changes include the conduct of free and fair elections, the formation of new political parties, the reinforcement of civil rights and liberties, governmental accountability and the emergence of a participant political culture. Within foreign relations they include deeper cooperation with regional and international actors, reintegration into the Arab League, and rapprochement with Western states. However, we also observe that structural economic changes, in particular raising personal incomes and lowering poverty, and the normalisation of security provision are moving forward more slowly. We conclude that democratisation in Libya is taking place and there is a solid possibility that embedded democracy will emerge in Libya in the medium to longterm.

AMEC insights, 2015

As promising as the current political and militarised environment in Libya might appear to be for the Islamic State, the country is not quite ready to play social host for the group. Its expansion in Libya is the direct result of a failure to resolve the political crisis and reintegrate militant groups into state apparatuses. With all these failures, the country is slowly but surely turning into the IS’s operational frontline in North Africa, the Sahara and Africa’s Mediterranean coast.