Papers by Todor Yalamov
This publication analyses the changes in the third sector during the 2010-2013 period and at the ... more This publication analyses the changes in the third sector during the 2010-2013 period and at the same time outlines the positive practices in the social entrepreneurship as well as the risks that reduce the chances for nongovernmental organisations to effectively impact the democracy and well-being of Bulgaria.
The Bulgarian public procurement market constituted 9% of national GDP on average between 2009 an... more The Bulgarian public procurement market constituted 9% of national GDP on average between 2009 and 2013, making it a key public resource for allocation and an object of corruption pressure. Approximately a third of the total construction sector and half of the Top 40 companies’ turnover in 2013 came from public procurement. Similar concentration is also evident on the supply side, with public works reaching above 50% of the value of all public procurement contracts the same year, implying an increase in corruption risks. The firm-level analysis of the public procurement contracts awarded to the Top 40 construction companies by turnover included in the paper, confirms the trend of concentration. Using public procurement data on Bulgaria from the EU’s TED database we find that single bidding, the foremost corruption risk red flag in public procurement, is more prevalent in public procurement involving national than EU funds. In addition, linking the database of the Top 40 construction companies to the TED database, we discover that politically connected companies win a higher share of the single bidding public procurement contracts involving national funds than EU funds. The risk reduction effect of EU funds in single bidding contracts diminishes with the value of the contract. While the data does not conclusively uncover specific types of favouritism, it points to increased corruption risks, especially involving large-scale construction projects in infrastructure and energy.
The various stakeholders in national innovation systems are interested in clustering for differen... more The various stakeholders in national innovation systems are interested in clustering for different reasons. The relationship between Bulgarian firms has been evolving through complex organizational partnerships. These partnerships seek either to increase competitiveness or avail themselves to funds for the formation and development of clusters. Policymakers mimic trendy EU or global policies, and utilize funds to support favourable regions, sectors or party allies. Some business associations or business leaders promote themselves by rebranding their activities through clustering discourse. Academic entrepreneurs see clustering as a fast track to research commercialization and so on. However, little attention has been paid to the actual practice of finding business partners and the evolution of productive partnerships that later institutionalize into sustainable organizational networks. This paper presents the author’s practical experience in nurturing and assisting Bulgarian firms’ search for business or research partnerships domestically or internationally (Bankova and Yalamov 2011). It will draw on institutional knowledge (such as the ARC Fund and Enterprise Europe Network – Bulgaria) and quantitative data from national representative innovation surveys. It will be posited that cluster policies in Bulgaria are ineffective and naturally induce firms’ opportunistic behaviour. Real clustering only emerges as a market response to demands of foreign companies. By examining innovation partnering, which is central to the form of business partnership leading to the establishment of clusters, it will be demonstrated that innovation in Bulgaria is rather a closed or close proximity phenomenon. In other words, innovation is driven by embedded social networks rather than institutions or clusters. This paper concludes with recommendations to the government and other national and international stakeholders as to the ways they should modify their support for SME clustering in Bulgaria.
Eastern European Economics, 2012
ABSTRACT This paper looks at corruption as noncompliant behavior. It argues that bribery is a sub... more ABSTRACT This paper looks at corruption as noncompliant behavior. It argues that bribery is a substitute for being connected and statistically tests various forms of this proposition in the context of Bulgaria. This approach is tested with two illegitimate goals (hiding and circumvention) of economic behavior and two legitimate goals (influencing laws and public procurement) that might be achieved by noncompliant means. The findings suggest that bribery is used primarily when companies are engaged in hidden economic activities and circumvention of the law, while networks turn out to be the only significant variable when firms attempt to influence new legislation or acquire public procurement contracts.
Scenario planning has been among the world’s top 25 management tools annually in the last 20 year... more Scenario planning has been among the world’s top 25 management tools annually in the last 20 years. Despite its popularity in developed economies for over 40 years, it is rarely used in transition economies. While public administrations of old EU member states and the European Commission itself institutionalize foresight, Bulgaria still only pilots it here and there. The paper explores the conditionalities for scenario planning implementation by companies in the ICT sector and by public administration in Bulgaria. The sectors were chosen because scenario planning is considered to be a managerial method to cope with complexity and both domains are exemplary complex. The paper ranges diffusion channels for scenario planning and argues that its potential in public administration (government) is significantly lower than within three groups of companies (Bulgarian ICT firms with own brands on international markets, foreign ICT firms with R&D centers in Bulgaria and local start-ups that target global markets), relatively the same as other four groups (foreign ICT firms without local R&D centers, ICT insourcing firms, non-ICT companies and ICT business associations) and exceeds only Bulgarian ICT firms that work entirely on domestic market. However it could be effectively used within e-government requirements engineering and pre-commercial procurement.
The paper discusses a popular game within an elementary school in Sofia, invented by one of its s... more The paper discusses a popular game within an elementary school in Sofia, invented by one of its students. It suggests an approach to introduce an Android programming for kids on the basis of the game, how new mathematical problems could be invented and solved by Excel functions and computations and demonstrates first steps in doing research in elementary mathematics. A happy number is defined as a four-digit number of a car plate in Bulgaria, where an arithmetic operation of the first two digits equals the result of another (or same) arithmetic operation of the last two digits. A mobile app simulating the game is developed and the longest consecutive raw of happy numbers is found. Additional problems are formulated and suggestions are provided to teachers how to use this and other similar games to develop research interests and creative mathematical skills.
For the triangle ABC let (x,y)ABC denote the line which intersects the union of segments AB and B... more For the triangle ABC let (x,y)ABC denote the line which intersects the union of segments AB and BC in X and the segment AC in Y in a particular ratio (given in the file). Prove that the three lines (x,y)ABC, (x,y)BCA, (x,y)CAB intersect in a point dividing the segment NI in the ratio x:y, where N is the Nagel point and I is the incentre of ABC.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This study analyses bank lending in the larger context of bank-firm relations within the Bulgaria... more This study analyses bank lending in the larger context of bank-firm relations within the Bulgarian specificity of currency board. It focuses on the 'intersection' of credit supply and demand on the side of banks and firms simultaneously. We suggest both traditional and new hypotheses corresponding to the specific conditions of the Bulgarian ownership change, transitional corruption and other institutional and political factors. The model is based on a survey on Bulgarian banks and a unique database on firms. The study found that the dynamics and structure of credit is affected mainly by the features of the institutional environment, whereas the 'resource' and traditional factors became secondary. During the period 1998 -2001, there is separation of the banking sector activity from the activity of the real sector in Bulgaria. In the new conditions of currency board, the dual sector of enterprises and the specific institutional environment continue their existence. Despite its disciplining effect the currency board by itself is not sufficiently effective to overcome the remaining 'institutional obstacles, associated mainly with the inefficiency of the judicial system, corruption, state capture, uncertain property rights, etc.
Revue d’études comparatives Est-Ouest, 2003
La liaison banques-entreprises sous le régime de Currency Board : étude empirique pour la Bulgari... more La liaison banques-entreprises sous le régime de Currency Board : étude empirique pour la Bulgarie In: Revue d'études comparatives Est-Ouest. Volume 34, 2003, N°2. pp. 53-81. Citer ce document / Cite this document : Nenovsky Nikolay, Peev Evgeni, Yalamov Todor, Cirac Stéphanie, Tchimichkian Madeleine. La liaison banques-entreprises sous le régime de Currency Board : étude empirique pour la Bulgarie. In: Revue d'études comparatives Est-Ouest. Résumé Cette étude traite du crédit bancaire dans le contexte élargi des relations banques-entreprises en Bulgarie sous le régime de Currency Board. Elle se concentre sur l'"intersection" entre l'offre et la demande de crédit, respectivement de la part des banques et des entreprises. Nous avançons des hypothèses à la fois traditionnelles et inédites correspondant aux conditions spécifiques de la redistribution des droits de propriété en Bulgarie, de la corruption induite par la transition et d'autres facteurs institutionnels et politiques. Notre modèle en coupe instantanée se fonde sur une enquête consacrée aux banques bulgares et sur une base de données au niveau de l'entreprise. L'analyse montre que c'est surtout l'environnement institutionnel qui agit sur la dynamique et la structure du crédit, tandis que la capacité de prêt et les facteurs traditionnels s'avèrent secondaires. Pendant la période 1998-2001, une séparation entre les activités du secteur bancaire et celles du secteur réel est observée en Bulgarie. Dans les nouvelles conditions du Currency Board, la dualité du secteur des entreprises et les spécificités de l'environnement institutionnel persistent. Bien qu'il ait un effet contraignant, le Currency Board ne peut à lui seul surmonter les obstacles institutionnels qui demeurent, lesquels proviennent essentiellement de l'inefficacité du système judiciaire, de la corruption, de la captation de l'État et du caractère aléatoire des droits de propriété. Abstract This study of bank loans in the larger context of bank-firm relations under the Bulgarian Currency Board focuses on the 'intersection' between credit supply and demand from the point of view of both banks and firms. Both traditional and new hypotheses are suggested that correspond to specific conditions in Bulgaria: the ownership change, the corruption resulting from the transi-tion and other institutional and political factors. Using a cross-sectional model based on a survey on Bulgarian banks and a database of firms, this study found that the main factor affecting the dynamics and structure of credit was the institutional environment, whereas resources and traditional factors were secondary. During the period 1998-2001, banking activities were separate from those of the real sector. Given the new conditions resulting from setting up the Currency Board, the dual sector of firms and the specific institutional environment persist. Despite the discipline it has imposed, the Currency Board does not suffice by itself to overcome persistent institutional impediments, which are mainly related to the inefficiency of the judicial system, corruption, state capture and insecure property rights.
Annual Book of Sofia University" St. …, 2011
The paper considers the clusters and their important role in the knowledge-based economy; the Bul... more The paper considers the clusters and their important role in the knowledge-based economy; the Bulgarian clusters in the European context; the problems of the Bulgarian clusters from the point of view of the knowledge management. Conclusions are drawn on necessary ...
REVUE D ETUDES …, 2003
Abstract: This study analyses bank lending in the larger context of bank-firm relations within th... more Abstract: This study analyses bank lending in the larger context of bank-firm relations within the Bulgarian currency board. It focuses on the 'intersection'of credit supply and demand on the side of banks and firms simultaneously. We suggest both traditional and new ...
National Report by Todor Yalamov
Corruption and organized crime threat monitoring report , Mar 19, 2015
The Corruption and Organized Crime Threat Monitoring Report is an overview of the state and dynam... more The Corruption and Organized Crime Threat Monitoring Report is an overview of the state and dynamics of corruption and organized crime in the Republic of Macedonia. The basis of this report is the Corruption Monitoring System (CMS) developed by the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD)
from Bulgaria. The CMS relies on diverse sources of information and combines quantitative and qualitative methods for monitoring and the assessment of corruption and organized crime. The CMS has gained acknowledgement from the United Nations (UN) as a best practice system for monitoring corruption at the national level.
The report is divided into seven chapters and it provides an overview of the legal and institutional framework for the fight against corruption and organized crime in the country, provides an overview of the macroeconomic situation and the emergence of the link between corruption and organized crime, risk assessment of threats and corruption of organized crime, as well as levels of connection between these two phenomena: infiltration (general) in the political arena, infiltration in the government (elected officials), infiltration in public administration and institutions, bribery etc. Through these levels indirect critical review of corruption in politics is offered, but also to other areas and levels of government such as the judiciary; administration, police and customs. The last section deals with the private sector and corruption with a general review and review of public procurement, money laundering and VAT fraud.
Books by Todor Yalamov
The book provides a comprehensive study of hidden economy and in particular - hidden employment i... more The book provides a comprehensive study of hidden economy and in particular - hidden employment in Southeast Europe. It looks into the official imputed unobserved economy in the system of national accounts, various estimates of hidden economy, tax gaps, tax revenues and factors, which might contribute or explain hidden economy. The first chapter provides overview of hidden economy based on available data from other research. Chapter 2 provides analysis based on survey data conducted by SELDI partners. Chapter 3 focuses on hidden employment, Chapter 4 on tax compliance and tax avoidance. Chapter 5 provides an overview analysis of the business environment in SEE. The book concludes with policy recommendations.
This publication analyses the changes in the third sector during the 2010 – 2013 period and at th... more This publication analyses the changes in the third sector during the 2010 – 2013 period and at the same time outlines the positive practices in the social entrepreneurship as well as the risks that reduce the chances for nongovernmental organisations to effectively impact the democracy and well-being of Bulgaria.
The monograph focuses on the major trends and risks facing the development of civil society in Bu... more The monograph focuses on the major trends and risks facing the development of civil society in Bulgaria. It identifies three groups of risks – the implementation of public-private partnerships, the takeover of civil society by politicians and senior civil servants at the central and local level, and profit-making by NGOs. A number of legislative changes and measures are recommended to government and municipal authorities, while measures for self-regulation and greater level of transparency are suggested to the third sector itself.
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Papers by Todor Yalamov
National Report by Todor Yalamov
from Bulgaria. The CMS relies on diverse sources of information and combines quantitative and qualitative methods for monitoring and the assessment of corruption and organized crime. The CMS has gained acknowledgement from the United Nations (UN) as a best practice system for monitoring corruption at the national level.
The report is divided into seven chapters and it provides an overview of the legal and institutional framework for the fight against corruption and organized crime in the country, provides an overview of the macroeconomic situation and the emergence of the link between corruption and organized crime, risk assessment of threats and corruption of organized crime, as well as levels of connection between these two phenomena: infiltration (general) in the political arena, infiltration in the government (elected officials), infiltration in public administration and institutions, bribery etc. Through these levels indirect critical review of corruption in politics is offered, but also to other areas and levels of government such as the judiciary; administration, police and customs. The last section deals with the private sector and corruption with a general review and review of public procurement, money laundering and VAT fraud.
Books by Todor Yalamov
from Bulgaria. The CMS relies on diverse sources of information and combines quantitative and qualitative methods for monitoring and the assessment of corruption and organized crime. The CMS has gained acknowledgement from the United Nations (UN) as a best practice system for monitoring corruption at the national level.
The report is divided into seven chapters and it provides an overview of the legal and institutional framework for the fight against corruption and organized crime in the country, provides an overview of the macroeconomic situation and the emergence of the link between corruption and organized crime, risk assessment of threats and corruption of organized crime, as well as levels of connection between these two phenomena: infiltration (general) in the political arena, infiltration in the government (elected officials), infiltration in public administration and institutions, bribery etc. Through these levels indirect critical review of corruption in politics is offered, but also to other areas and levels of government such as the judiciary; administration, police and customs. The last section deals with the private sector and corruption with a general review and review of public procurement, money laundering and VAT fraud.