Papers by Luis Fernando Cabrera-Castellanos
Se emplea la metodología de Fisher y Seater (1993) para probar la neutralidad de dinero a largo p... more Se emplea la metodología de Fisher y Seater (1993) para probar la neutralidad de dinero a largo plazo en Guatemala durante 1950-2002. Se encuentra que el PIB real, tres componentes de PIB (consumo, inversión y gasto público), así como las medidas de dinero, M1 y M2, son integradas en orden uno [I(1)]. Dados estos órdenes, se puede aplicar la prueba de neutralidad de Fisher y Seater. La evidencia sugiere que M1 es neutral con respecto al PIB real, a los gastos reales gubernamentales, y al consumo real. M2 es neutral con respecto al PIB real y el consumo real, pero no con respecto los otros componentes de PIB.
El Trimestre económico
We use a previously unexploited data set to calculate the real exchange rate with respect to the ... more We use a previously unexploited data set to calculate the real exchange rate with respect to the U.S. dollar for Mexico for 1930.01-1960.12, and to test for purchasing power parity (PPP). The initial results from the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test show weak support for the PPP hypothesis. The Kapetanios, Shin, and Snell test, for a unit root null with an alternative of nonlinear reversion to the mean, indicates substantial support for PPP. However, non-normality and, sometimes, heteroscedasticity are found in the test residuals. Using a wild bootstrap approach, critical values are calculated from the empirical distribution of the residuals. Reevaluating the test statistics with the new critical values, we conclude that there is evidence of nonlinear adjustment to PPP for 1930.01-1951.12 but there is no evidence that PPP held for 1952.01-1960.12, the period of import substitution in Mexico.// Empleamos una serie de datos no explotados anteriormente para calcular el tipo de cambio...
In this paper we analyze the evolution and current situation of the Mexican Fiscal Federalism. Ou... more In this paper we analyze the evolution and current situation of the Mexican Fiscal Federalism. Our diagnosis showed that deep structural inequalities in the country is present, both internally and in comparison with the countries of the OECD. We pointed out the low financial autonomy of the subnational governments and the system of transferences in force is examined. Also, we evaluate the current transferences and we conclude that deep innefficiency and inequality problems remains.
European Journal of Scientific Research
A rural town (Morelos) and another urban (Cancun) in the state of Quintana Roo, México, have been... more A rural town (Morelos) and another urban (Cancun) in the state of Quintana Roo, México, have been analyzed, and paradoxically we discovered that women suffer higher degrees of violence by their partners in the environment with a higher level of female empowerment, measured through different indicators. We came to the conclusion that, in underdeveloped societies, there must be a "threshold" from which female empowerment implies a decrease in domestic violence. However, as long as this threshold is not reached, women will pay a price in terms of male violence against them, in the process of gaining more participation in society
Un Fondo de Nivelación para México basado en la medición de las necesidades de gasto y de la capa... more Un Fondo de Nivelación para México basado en la medición de las necesidades de gasto y de la capacidad fiscal* * El presente trabajo fue ganador del primer lugar del Premio Nacional de Finanzas Públicas 2010, convocado por el Centro de Estudios de las Finanzas Públicas (CEFP), de la H. Cámara de Diputados y está basado en una investigación más amplia realizada por los autores. las entidades federativas (Sistema de Gastos Representativo); iv) se realiza la medición de la capacidad fiscal para las mismas entidades (Sistema Tributario Representativo); v) se efectúa para las mediciones anteriores, un ejercicio con datos reales; vi) se propone un esquema concreto de adopción del fondo de nivelación considerando cuestiones institucionales y la dinámica del sistema propuesto. Asimismo, se concluye que el fondo de nivelación propuesto en este tra-bajo, permite ganancias en equidad y eficiencia respecto al actual sistema de transferencias existente en México. Palabras clave: federalismo fisc...
The Fisher-Seater (1993) methodology is applied to Guatemala data (1950-2002) in order to test fo... more The Fisher-Seater (1993) methodology is applied to Guatemala data (1950-2002) in order to test for long-run neutrality of money. Real GDP, consumption, investment and public expenditure, and the monetary base and M2a are found to be I(1). Given this order of integration, we applied the Fisher Seater neutrality test and we found evidence of M1 neutrality with respect to GDP, expenditure and consumption.
El objetivo del presente trabajo es determinar la existencia o no de convergencia (absoluta y con... more El objetivo del presente trabajo es determinar la existencia o no de convergencia (absoluta y condicional) para la región de América Latina y determinar las principales variables que afectan el crecimiento económico de estos países. El trabajo presenta, en una primera parte, la exposición del modelo neoclásico y los conceptos de convergencia absoluta y condicional; en una segunda parte, se presentan los resultados obtenidos para la región, destacando los siguientes: se encuentra evidencia empírica de convergencia absoluta y condicional en el periodo de estudio a una tasa muy similar a la encontrada por otros estudios para otros grupos de países o regiones al interior de un mismo país (alrededor del 2 por ciento).
Palabras clave: Inversión extranjera directa, crecimiento, capital humano. n Clasificación jel: O... more Palabras clave: Inversión extranjera directa, crecimiento, capital humano. n Clasificación jel: O54, O33.
In this paper we deal simultaneously with two crucial problems in today’s Mexico: a fiscal federa... more In this paper we deal simultaneously with two crucial problems in today’s Mexico: a fiscal federalism that is seriously-flawed in the allocation of transfers to the local governments and the large number of offences linked with organized crime, a category in which the country is among the highest ranking. In this paper we suggest a more equitable and effective allocation
Trimestre Económico, …, 2004
Clasificación JEL: E31, E52 Resumen Se aplica la metodología de Fisher y Seater (1993) para proba... more Clasificación JEL: E31, E52 Resumen Se aplica la metodología de Fisher y Seater (1993) para probar la existencia a largo plazo de neutralidad y superneutralidad de dinero en Nicaragua durante 1960-1999. Se encuentra que ambas medidas de dinero, la base monetaria y el M2a, son integradas en orden dos [I(2)] y el PIB es integrado en orden uno [I(1)]. Dados estos órdenes, no se puede rechazar la hipótesis de neutralidad bajo prueba. Lo que es más, ninguna de las medidas de dinero es superneutral aunque la evidencia en contra no es fuerte. Los resultados sugieren que la inflación impuso costos reales en la economía.
![Research paper thumbnail of Un Sistema de Ingresos Representativo para los Municipios de México [A Representative Revenue System for Local Governments in Mexico]](https://attachments.academia-assets.com/43435011/thumbnails/1.jpg)
This paper shows an estimate of the fiscal capacity of the municipalities in Mexico from two alte... more This paper shows an estimate of the fiscal capacity of the municipalities in Mexico from two alternatives: a Macrof�rmula based on the local GDP per capita (for 1.954 municipalities) and our approximation (for 1.461 municipalities) for a Representative Revenue System (RRS), Which is obtained dividing the municipal income in two components: the tax base by property tax, and a base that includes "other" revenues. As far as we know, this is the first estimate at this level of disaggregation in our country. The estimate is for the 2005, since it is the only year for the account with an estimate of GDP at municipal level in Mexico The results are consistent with other works (Sour, 2004 and Lozano and Cabrera, 2009) in both the municipalities with greater fiscal capacity are those whose economic activities central allow the "export taxes", that is, tourist destinations. Nevertheless, differ partially other results as the Aguilar (2009), which may be due to this author,...
In the present work we make a proposal of regionalization of Mexico by means of a human capital i... more In the present work we make a proposal of regionalization of Mexico by means of a human capital index elaborated with the factorial analysis of eight referring variables to education and health (corresponding to year 2000), same that, according to different empirical studies, gives to account of the economic variable investment in human capital including in the models of economic growth.
En este trabajo se realiza un análisis de la situación de coyuntura que presenta la industria man... more En este trabajo se realiza un análisis de la situación de coyuntura que presenta la industria manufacturera de México y se plantea la metodología Box-Jenkins y extensiones de la misma para llevarla a cabo y realizar los pronósticos pertinentes.
Un segundo elemento a destacar es la tasa a la que se da la convergencia: para el período complet... more Un segundo elemento a destacar es la tasa a la que se da la convergencia: para el período completo se tiene una tasa de 1.1% anual, que es baja respecto a lo que predice la teoría neoclásica y ligeramente menor a la encontrada en otros estudios (generalmente de alrededor del 2% anual). Sin embargo, en las restantes submuestras se aprecian tasas notablemente superiores.
Abstract This paper use the Times Series scope to find the convergence between six regions in Méx... more Abstract This paper use the Times Series scope to find the convergence between six regions in México used the Prices Series Index. We stand the integration order about the particular series and we found all them are/(/). We proof the cointegration each one about the ...
I thank Alan Taylor for providing the data used in his study. Walt Enders kindly provided compute... more I thank Alan Taylor for providing the data used in his study. Walt Enders kindly provided computer code, recent versions of his working papers cited herein, and helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper. Gary Shelley made a number of useful suggestions as well. Errors are mine, of course. Financial support from the National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT) of Mexico is gratefully acknowledged. Abstract: Cointegration Tests of Purchasing Power Parity JEL Codes: C22, F31 Keywords: Cointegration, purchasing power parity Running Head: Cointegration Tests of PPP Im, Lee, and Enders use stationary instrumental variables in tests for cointegrating relationships. Consequently, the t-statistics are asymptotically standard normal so that the critical values of the normal distribution may be used to assess significance and the nuisance parameter problem is avoided. Using an updated version of the Taylor (2002) data set, the ILE approach is applied to three well-known single equation alternatives in testing for purchasing power parity. The regressions with instruments provide evidence of PPP for some countries but the empirical results differ across tests and, sometimes, with the choice of instrument.
... Luis Cabrera Castellanos Edgar Cruz Mora ... in weighing the industrial activities of the mun... more ... Luis Cabrera Castellanos Edgar Cruz Mora ... in weighing the industrial activities of the municipalities, biased the results compared to those with strong presence of services and which have the "export taxes" possibility (Lozano and Cabrera ... NUEVO LEÓN 100% 33.21% 66.79% ...
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Papers by Luis Fernando Cabrera-Castellanos