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Luca Raineri

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Dr Luca Raineri is a research fellow in International Relations and Security Studies at the Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies of Pisa, Italy. His areas of expertise include critical security studies, African politics, geopolitics, and peace and conflict studies. His research focuses mainly on the impact of transnational networks and extralegal economies (narcotics, arms and people smuggling) on security and development in Africa. Since 2010, he has spent several months doing field-research in Senegal, Mali, Niger, Tunisia.
Dr. Raineri holds a degree in Political Theory from the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) in Paris, and he was Research Fellow at the Ecole Normale Supérieure (ENS, 2008-2009). He also holds a Master of Arts in Human Rights and Conflict Management from the Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies (2011), and a PhD in Global Politics at the Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies (2016).
Dr Raineri has been working as a consultant for several international NGOs, IOs and private research institutions dealing with development, security and human rights, with a particular focus on West Africa.

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Daniel D. Hutto

University of Wollongong

The University of Texas at Austin

Oludamini Ogunnaike

University of Virginia

Shaun Gallagher

University of Memphis

Armando Marques-Guedes

UNL - New University of Lisbon

The Australian National University

Field Museum

Johns Hopkins University

Marmara University

York University

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Papers by Luca Raineri

Africa in the Study of International Relations: The (Double) Realist Bias of Global IR

Shaping Smart and Health Ageing, Dec 31, 2022

Reiteration or reinvention? Jihadi governance and gender practices in the Sahel

International Feminist Journal of Politics

Resilience to what? The EU fostering capacity-building in the Sahel through CSDP missions

Geopolitica delle migrazioni africane verso l'Italia

Jihadism in Mali and the Sahel : Evolving dynamics and patterns by Luca Raineri and

The Sahel is a crisis polygon. Following the French intervention in Mali in 2013, this vast and s... more The Sahel is a crisis polygon. Following the French intervention in Mali in 2013, this vast and sparsely inhabited region has seen the gradual resurgence and the realignment of jihadist armed groups that have extended their operational range further south – across northwest African borders, where they interfere in and interact with already existing conflicts – and increased the challenges for regional stability.

The data that we do (not) have: studying drug trafficking and organised crime in Africa

Trends in Organized Crime

How do we know what we (claim to) know about Africa's organised crime? Much of our understanding ... more How do we know what we (claim to) know about Africa's organised crime? Much of our understanding of the phenomenon is filtered through the representation of a growing threat carried out by criminal groups specialized in smuggling and trafficking commodities, who exploit vulnerabilities in state capacity (Interpol 2018). African states are often depicted as weak and possibly prone to criminal capture, thereby offering to sophisticated and powerful criminal cartels a soft belly in terms of interdiction capacity and effectiveness (for example, Naim 2012). The illicit trade of profitable goods and natural resources (timber, diamonds, gold, protected wildlife) typically takes centre-stage, fuelling a narrative that coalesces criminal networks, greedy insurgents and violent entrepreneurs. Within this framework, drugs constitute the quintessential illicit market, one that typically involves domestic and transnational criminal organisations, and armed groups vying for protection and extraction. Law enforcement agencies tend to consider any seizure of drugs as an indication of organised crime activity; the drug metrics that they produce are usually considered sensitive data, and therefore they are not easily accessible to researchers. For reasons that are not difficult to understand, those units that investigate the illicit drug business tend to perceive themselves as the bastions in checking serious crime: so much so that the law enforcement officers employed in 'narcotics units' often exhibit quite distinctive attitudes and special operational protocols. At policy making level, the genealogy of initiatives to counter drug-related crime has typically been presented as a core activity in the fight against organised crime (Nadelman 1990).

Climate Change and Security in the Mediterranean: Exploring the Nexus, Unpacking International Policy Responses

HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe), Jun 1, 2022

This volume examines the multidimensional relationship between climate change and security across... more This volume examines the multidimensional relationship between climate change and security across Mediterranean Basin states and societies, underscoring the key social, political and economic challenges of the present climate emergency and outlining possible cooperative avenues to mitigate its most adverse effects. Part of a broader research and engagement agenda on climate and the environment undertaken by the New-Med Research Network since 2020, individual chapters, written by leading scientists, academics and policy researchers, tackle different dimensions of the climate change-security nexus in the Mediterranean, assessing its implications on state and societal resilience, the future of living ecosystems and the stability of social contracts as well as the urgent need to strengthen genuine intra-Mediterranean collaboration to face the climate emergency and promote an equitable sharing of the risks and burdens associated with the green energy transition.

Policy brief: Perceptions about the EU’s Crisis Response in Libya

Within the EU’s approach to crisis management, it is crucial to consider the point of view of all... more Within the EU’s approach to crisis management, it is crucial to consider the point of view of all stakeholders to ensure that the crisis response is in line with European commitments towards local ownership and conflict sensitivity. This EUNPACK Policy Brief discusses the perceptions of those who have been exposed to the EU’s responses to the crisis unfolding in Libya. It is based on the results of a survey completed in the summer of 2017 by 228 respondents. It highlights, on the one hand, that while the EU is the most widely-known international actor involved in crisis response in Libya, the impact of its initiatives is less visible, thereby prompting a certain degree of dissatisfaction, if not of scepticism. This reaction is particularly pronounced remarkable among ethnic minorities living in peripheral regions. On the other hand, the EU is particularly praised for its initiatives in the fields of humanitarian assistance and capacity building, targeting most notably the most vulnerable social groups. For more information on EUNPACK project, see http://www.eunpack.eu/.

Resilience to What? EU Capacity-Building Missions in the Sahel

Projecting Resilience Across the Mediterranean, 2019

This chapter proposes an in-depth analysis of the three CSDP missions currently deployed in Mali ... more This chapter proposes an in-depth analysis of the three CSDP missions currently deployed in Mali and Niger, in order to shed light on the European initiatives for fostering resilience in the Sahel. Focusing on the security sector, the analysis considers the shared context of the origin of the missions, and it examines their evolution and their mixed performances. It suggests that the EU mainly conjugates resilience in terms of sector-specific, quick-impact measures of capacity-building targeting local states and security forces. Consequently, the EU tends to overestimate the size of external shocks while it underrates local fragilities, thereby undermining the potential impact of its efforts for stabilisation.

Human smuggling across Niger: state-sponsored protection rackets and contradictory security imperatives

The Journal of Modern African Studies, 2018

In recent years, Niger has gained prominence as a hub for the smuggling of migrants from West Afr... more In recent years, Niger has gained prominence as a hub for the smuggling of migrants from West Africa to North Africa and Europe. Urged on by European concerns, Niamey has adopted repressive measures to contain such migrations in the region. These, however, have largely failed, and have yielded unintended and unexpected results, which challenge policy predictions. Drawing on extensive fieldwork, the article suggests that contradictory security imperatives have brought about the de facto regularisation of human smuggling. As a result, protection rackets sponsored by the state through patronage networks have severely limited the impact of externally sponsored measures to counteract irregular migration.

Imagined Libya: geopolitics of the margins

L'Année du Maghreb

Working paper on implementation of EU crisis response in Libya

DOGMATISM OR PRAGMATISM? Violent extremism and gender in the central Sahel

The views expressed herein can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European... more

Fulfilling implausible expectations : reducing migratory flows from Libya amidst porous borders

In spite of existing claims that the old continent is flooded by uncontrolled migration from Afri... more In spite of existing claims that the old continent is flooded by uncontrolled migration from Africa, the decline in migratory flows from Libya is hardly disputable. Explanations for this, though, are less straightforward. While a shallow understanding of migratory dynamics lends itself to political manipulations, triangulation of the most recent data coming from different sources and referring to different legs of the migratory journey can provide valuable assistance in testing some of the hypotheses raised by media and politicians, and also in better grasping the origin and possible causes of these dynamics. At the same time, demystifying speculations that interfere in the accurate analysis of migration from Africa to Europe is the baseline to assessing the effectiveness of anti-smuggling policies put in place by the European Union and its Member States all across Africa. As the EU promotes hardened border controls, critical examination of data showing recent migrant inflows and ou...

The security–migration–development nexus revised: a perspective from the Sahel

The nexus of security, migration and development in Africa is crucial, but certainly not only bec... more The nexus of security, migration and development in Africa is crucial, but certainly not only because of the flows of migrants coming to Europe. It is evident that development, migration, peace and security are connected in several ways, but more light needs to be shed on the concrete effects of their interactions. In this complex framework, the Sahel region represents an important region where the security– migration–development nexus is particularly present and deserves further analysis. This research aims at re-conceptualizing this nexus through the analysis of this linkage in the Sahel region, and in particular vis-a-vis three case countries: Niger, Senegal and Sudan. The publication also recasts the European Union and the United States approaches to these dynamics and explores current and potential partnerships in the region.

Short-termist and self-defeating: assessing the EU's response to the crisis in Libya

Political instability in Libya is viewed as one of the key contributing factors to Europe's m... more Political instability in Libya is viewed as one of the key contributing factors to Europe's migration crisis, and the EU has taken an active role in addressing the problem. But how effective have the EU's efforts been in Libya? Based on new research, Luca Raineri highlights some key failings in the EU's approach, noting that there has been a significant disjoint between the ambitious objectives highlighted by EU leaders and their capacity and willingness to achieve these goals in practice.

Dissecting the EU response to the 'migration crisis

The EU and crisis response, 2021

ISIS and Al-Qaeda as Strategies and Political Imaginaries in Africa: A Comparison between Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb

Civil Wars, 2017

Abstract By analysing Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, this article argues that as... more Abstract By analysing Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, this article argues that ascriptions to international jihadist brands are linked to local movements’ political economy and geopolitical imaginaries, and, therefore, driven more by contingent strategic considerations rather than by ideological motives. Consequently, three sets of evidence are discussed, by drawing also on fieldwork conducted in Mali and Niger from 2013 to 2016: the discourses of these actors; their political economies; their use of political violence. In conclusion, we analyse the ‘territorialised-deterritorialised cleavage’ and argue that this has greater heuristic value to understand African ‘jihadisms’ than existing categorisations of political violence.

Drug trafficking in the Sahara Desert

Africa in the Study of International Relations: The (Double) Realist Bias of Global IR

Shaping Smart and Health Ageing, Dec 31, 2022

Reiteration or reinvention? Jihadi governance and gender practices in the Sahel

International Feminist Journal of Politics

Resilience to what? The EU fostering capacity-building in the Sahel through CSDP missions

Geopolitica delle migrazioni africane verso l'Italia

Jihadism in Mali and the Sahel : Evolving dynamics and patterns by Luca Raineri and

The Sahel is a crisis polygon. Following the French intervention in Mali in 2013, this vast and s... more The Sahel is a crisis polygon. Following the French intervention in Mali in 2013, this vast and sparsely inhabited region has seen the gradual resurgence and the realignment of jihadist armed groups that have extended their operational range further south – across northwest African borders, where they interfere in and interact with already existing conflicts – and increased the challenges for regional stability.

The data that we do (not) have: studying drug trafficking and organised crime in Africa

Trends in Organized Crime

How do we know what we (claim to) know about Africa's organised crime? Much of our understanding ... more How do we know what we (claim to) know about Africa's organised crime? Much of our understanding of the phenomenon is filtered through the representation of a growing threat carried out by criminal groups specialized in smuggling and trafficking commodities, who exploit vulnerabilities in state capacity (Interpol 2018). African states are often depicted as weak and possibly prone to criminal capture, thereby offering to sophisticated and powerful criminal cartels a soft belly in terms of interdiction capacity and effectiveness (for example, Naim 2012). The illicit trade of profitable goods and natural resources (timber, diamonds, gold, protected wildlife) typically takes centre-stage, fuelling a narrative that coalesces criminal networks, greedy insurgents and violent entrepreneurs. Within this framework, drugs constitute the quintessential illicit market, one that typically involves domestic and transnational criminal organisations, and armed groups vying for protection and extraction. Law enforcement agencies tend to consider any seizure of drugs as an indication of organised crime activity; the drug metrics that they produce are usually considered sensitive data, and therefore they are not easily accessible to researchers. For reasons that are not difficult to understand, those units that investigate the illicit drug business tend to perceive themselves as the bastions in checking serious crime: so much so that the law enforcement officers employed in 'narcotics units' often exhibit quite distinctive attitudes and special operational protocols. At policy making level, the genealogy of initiatives to counter drug-related crime has typically been presented as a core activity in the fight against organised crime (Nadelman 1990).

Climate Change and Security in the Mediterranean: Exploring the Nexus, Unpacking International Policy Responses

HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe), Jun 1, 2022

This volume examines the multidimensional relationship between climate change and security across... more This volume examines the multidimensional relationship between climate change and security across Mediterranean Basin states and societies, underscoring the key social, political and economic challenges of the present climate emergency and outlining possible cooperative avenues to mitigate its most adverse effects. Part of a broader research and engagement agenda on climate and the environment undertaken by the New-Med Research Network since 2020, individual chapters, written by leading scientists, academics and policy researchers, tackle different dimensions of the climate change-security nexus in the Mediterranean, assessing its implications on state and societal resilience, the future of living ecosystems and the stability of social contracts as well as the urgent need to strengthen genuine intra-Mediterranean collaboration to face the climate emergency and promote an equitable sharing of the risks and burdens associated with the green energy transition.

Policy brief: Perceptions about the EU’s Crisis Response in Libya

Within the EU’s approach to crisis management, it is crucial to consider the point of view of all... more Within the EU’s approach to crisis management, it is crucial to consider the point of view of all stakeholders to ensure that the crisis response is in line with European commitments towards local ownership and conflict sensitivity. This EUNPACK Policy Brief discusses the perceptions of those who have been exposed to the EU’s responses to the crisis unfolding in Libya. It is based on the results of a survey completed in the summer of 2017 by 228 respondents. It highlights, on the one hand, that while the EU is the most widely-known international actor involved in crisis response in Libya, the impact of its initiatives is less visible, thereby prompting a certain degree of dissatisfaction, if not of scepticism. This reaction is particularly pronounced remarkable among ethnic minorities living in peripheral regions. On the other hand, the EU is particularly praised for its initiatives in the fields of humanitarian assistance and capacity building, targeting most notably the most vulnerable social groups. For more information on EUNPACK project, see http://www.eunpack.eu/.

Resilience to What? EU Capacity-Building Missions in the Sahel

Projecting Resilience Across the Mediterranean, 2019

This chapter proposes an in-depth analysis of the three CSDP missions currently deployed in Mali ... more This chapter proposes an in-depth analysis of the three CSDP missions currently deployed in Mali and Niger, in order to shed light on the European initiatives for fostering resilience in the Sahel. Focusing on the security sector, the analysis considers the shared context of the origin of the missions, and it examines their evolution and their mixed performances. It suggests that the EU mainly conjugates resilience in terms of sector-specific, quick-impact measures of capacity-building targeting local states and security forces. Consequently, the EU tends to overestimate the size of external shocks while it underrates local fragilities, thereby undermining the potential impact of its efforts for stabilisation.

Human smuggling across Niger: state-sponsored protection rackets and contradictory security imperatives

The Journal of Modern African Studies, 2018

In recent years, Niger has gained prominence as a hub for the smuggling of migrants from West Afr... more In recent years, Niger has gained prominence as a hub for the smuggling of migrants from West Africa to North Africa and Europe. Urged on by European concerns, Niamey has adopted repressive measures to contain such migrations in the region. These, however, have largely failed, and have yielded unintended and unexpected results, which challenge policy predictions. Drawing on extensive fieldwork, the article suggests that contradictory security imperatives have brought about the de facto regularisation of human smuggling. As a result, protection rackets sponsored by the state through patronage networks have severely limited the impact of externally sponsored measures to counteract irregular migration.

Imagined Libya: geopolitics of the margins

L'Année du Maghreb

Working paper on implementation of EU crisis response in Libya

DOGMATISM OR PRAGMATISM? Violent extremism and gender in the central Sahel

The views expressed herein can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European... more

Fulfilling implausible expectations : reducing migratory flows from Libya amidst porous borders

In spite of existing claims that the old continent is flooded by uncontrolled migration from Afri... more In spite of existing claims that the old continent is flooded by uncontrolled migration from Africa, the decline in migratory flows from Libya is hardly disputable. Explanations for this, though, are less straightforward. While a shallow understanding of migratory dynamics lends itself to political manipulations, triangulation of the most recent data coming from different sources and referring to different legs of the migratory journey can provide valuable assistance in testing some of the hypotheses raised by media and politicians, and also in better grasping the origin and possible causes of these dynamics. At the same time, demystifying speculations that interfere in the accurate analysis of migration from Africa to Europe is the baseline to assessing the effectiveness of anti-smuggling policies put in place by the European Union and its Member States all across Africa. As the EU promotes hardened border controls, critical examination of data showing recent migrant inflows and ou...

The security–migration–development nexus revised: a perspective from the Sahel

The nexus of security, migration and development in Africa is crucial, but certainly not only bec... more The nexus of security, migration and development in Africa is crucial, but certainly not only because of the flows of migrants coming to Europe. It is evident that development, migration, peace and security are connected in several ways, but more light needs to be shed on the concrete effects of their interactions. In this complex framework, the Sahel region represents an important region where the security– migration–development nexus is particularly present and deserves further analysis. This research aims at re-conceptualizing this nexus through the analysis of this linkage in the Sahel region, and in particular vis-a-vis three case countries: Niger, Senegal and Sudan. The publication also recasts the European Union and the United States approaches to these dynamics and explores current and potential partnerships in the region.

Short-termist and self-defeating: assessing the EU's response to the crisis in Libya

Political instability in Libya is viewed as one of the key contributing factors to Europe's m... more Political instability in Libya is viewed as one of the key contributing factors to Europe's migration crisis, and the EU has taken an active role in addressing the problem. But how effective have the EU's efforts been in Libya? Based on new research, Luca Raineri highlights some key failings in the EU's approach, noting that there has been a significant disjoint between the ambitious objectives highlighted by EU leaders and their capacity and willingness to achieve these goals in practice.

Dissecting the EU response to the 'migration crisis

The EU and crisis response, 2021

ISIS and Al-Qaeda as Strategies and Political Imaginaries in Africa: A Comparison between Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb

Civil Wars, 2017

Abstract By analysing Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, this article argues that as... more Abstract By analysing Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, this article argues that ascriptions to international jihadist brands are linked to local movements’ political economy and geopolitical imaginaries, and, therefore, driven more by contingent strategic considerations rather than by ideological motives. Consequently, three sets of evidence are discussed, by drawing also on fieldwork conducted in Mali and Niger from 2013 to 2016: the discourses of these actors; their political economies; their use of political violence. In conclusion, we analyse the ‘territorialised-deterritorialised cleavage’ and argue that this has greater heuristic value to understand African ‘jihadisms’ than existing categorisations of political violence.

Drug trafficking in the Sahara Desert

Fulfilling Implausible Expectations. Reducing Migratory Flows From Libya Amidst Porous Borders

Policy Brief 2018/14, Robert Schuman Centre, EUI., 2018

The implementation of EU Crisis Response in Libya: Bridging theory and practice

by Chiara Loschi and Luca Raineri

Working Paper D6.02 EUNPACK, 2018

Organized crime and fragile states: African variations (EUISS Brief 8)

by Francesco Strazzari and Luca Raineri

Exactly how transnational organised crime (TOC) poses a security threat that may undermine the st... more Exactly how transnational organised crime (TOC) poses a security threat that may undermine the state, including its societal institutions, geopolitical stability and economic prosperity, is a question that has gained traction in public debates over the past decades. And discussions about extra-legal governance – i.e. those political, economic and social arrangements that take shape beyond and against the law – are very much present in Africa, where states are often portrayed as defective. Such discussions are often articulated through dichotomies, such as fragility vs. resilience, good governance vs. ungoverned spaces, and legal vs. criminal activity. Frequently inspired by abstract templates and moral logics, these dichoto-mies sometimes rest on the use of loose concepts, and hardly convey the meaning given to them by those people who deal with them in their daily lives.