Papers by Elnari Potgieter
This paper considers social cohesion primarily in terms of its absence – ‘the nature and extent o... more This paper considers social cohesion primarily in terms of its absence – ‘the nature and extent of social and economic divisions within society’ (Easterly et al. 2006:105). Data from the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation’s South African Reconciliation Barometer (SARB) is used to advance an understanding of what underpins individual perceptions of inequality as the biggest division in South Africa. In particular, our interest is in the relationship between perceived relative standing and registering the gap between rich and poor as the greatest divide in South Africa.
The South African Reconciliation Barometer (SARB) is a public opinion survey conducted by the IJR... more The South African Reconciliation Barometer (SARB) is a public opinion survey conducted by the IJR. Since its launch in 2003, the SARB has provided a nationally representative measure of citizens’ attitudes to national reconciliation, social cohesion, transformation and democratic governance. The SARB is the only survey dedicated to critical measurement of reconciliation in South Africa, and is the largest longitudinal data source of its kind globally. This report covers the findings of the most recent round of the survey conducted in 2017.
The incidence of interracial marriage is considered a measure of the dissolution of social and cu... more The incidence of interracial marriage is considered a measure of the dissolution of social and cultural barriers, and therefore of social and cultural integration. Attitudes towards those who are in interracial marriages and relationships, however, give further insights into acceptance of the dissolution of social and cultural barriers – even if individuals themselves are not part of an intergroup relationship. Such sentiments form part of a much bigger picture of progress made in terms of reconciling South Africans after apartheid. Thus, attitudes
towards interracial marriages are regarded as an indicator that helps us understand how far South Africans have come in terms of integration and addressing prejudices.
This paper explores attitudes towards inter-racial marriages using data from the South African Reconciliation Barometer (SARB) from 2003-2015. Approval of interracial marriages – in particular,
in terms of a close relative marrying someone from another race group as portrayed through SARB data from 2003–2015 – has been slow to adjust. Some positive change (albeit incremental) in terms of approval of a close relative marrying a person from another race group has happened – as can be seen in a decrease in disapproval, as well as an increase in neutral responses.
The aim of this paper is to create a measurement for national-level social cohesion in South Afri... more The aim of this paper is to create a measurement for national-level social cohesion in South Africa, by creating an index of variables that provide insight into what it is that holds our society together and, conversely, what causes division within it.
The 2016 South African Local Government Elections ushers in a new era of 'substantive uncertainty... more The 2016 South African Local Government Elections ushers in a new era of 'substantive uncertainty'. No party can now take for granted voter allegiances. This is a win for voters. It makes elections the repository of voters - not political parties and politicians, as the narrative crafted by the mainstream media in the lead up to the election may have suggested.
But it is the outcomes of the election that provide the most compelling story. Any search for a catch all -grand narrative emerging from this election however, is likely to be no narrative at all. What this election tells, is a story of significant specificity and diversity across different spatial areas emerging.
It is a combined story of continuity, consolidation and change.
Prior to the 2016 South Africa local elections, conflict related to the ANC's mayoral candidate l... more Prior to the 2016 South Africa local elections, conflict related to the ANC's mayoral candidate led to serious protests in particular townships, all traditionally strong ANC supporting areas, in the Tshwane metro. This was precipitated by serious internecine ANC internal factionalism in which the ANC's regional chair was pitted as rival against his deputy. Both were nominated by the different regional branch structures of the ANC as mayoral candidate nominees'. In a bid to avoid a factional battle within its own ranks - both in terms of electoral support, but also in any likely post-election governance regime, the ANC's purported solution was to find a "compromise" mayoral candidate nominee.
The party settled on a black woman, Thoko Didiza with sufficient administrative and management experience (a former cabinet Minister) who would both suite the candidate criteria the party defined as standards for its nominee's, but more importantly, was someone who rose above the factionalism that appears to have become endemic within the regional structures of the Tshwane ANC. This did not sit well with the regional party structures - who in open rebellion against a set of nomination rules mutually agreed upon by the party - embarked on a five day protest culminating in millions of Rands of damage to public and private property, and five unfortunate deaths. For the ANC, and the regional ANC in particular, these events had a disastrous impact on its electoral performance.
Did this cost the ANC its clear majority in the Tshwane Metro Council?
Evidently, in the lead up to the elections, the ANC's own members and core support base in Tshwane did not accept what they viewed as the imposition of a "neutral" or compromise candidate as Mayor nominee. They suggested that they would "punish the ANC" through a "stay-away" from the polls or for voting for an opposition party. This was no idle threat. It is what they did.
But the stay away factor has perhaps, been overstated especially in the traditionally ANC supporting areas (what we call the five hotspots) of Atteridgeville, Soshanguve, Mabopane, Mamelodi and Hammanskraal, where voter turnout remained similar to turnout levels from 2011, and in some cases even increased. This is counter to the pre-election intuitive expectation that there would be dramatically lower voter turnout in these areas compared to 2011, due to the ANC's factionalism and the threat of ANC voters to stay away.
The 2015 South African Reconciliation Barometer (SARB) asked respondents how often they use vario... more The 2015 South African Reconciliation Barometer (SARB) asked respondents how often they use various media forms for political information, how much they trust political information from various media forms, and the confidence that they have in certain media institutions. These findings were released during an event, encouraged a conversation with regards to the role of “the Media” in South Africa’s democracy and the expectations in this regard. It also considered the relationship of the media and citizens in South Africa – in terms of building or diminishing political trust, and of citizens as agents within a democracy – who access and share political information through various media sources.
This public dialogue paper was used to foster discussion on the importance and the role of the media in a democratic South Africa, as well as to consider how citizens engage with diverse sources of political information
Against the backdrop of South Africa's political environment during 2016, and the 20th anniversar... more Against the backdrop of South Africa's political environment during 2016, and the 20th anniversary of
the adoption of the new Constitution of South Africa that same year, the IJR's SARB Project identified this period as an opportune time to gauge the South African public’s opinion of the Constitution, the institutions charged with the mandate to uphold, protect and defend it, and some of the rights detailed in the document.
To this end, the SARB project conducted a mobile survey. This special briefing paper reports on the findings in this regard.
During the course of 2015 /2016, the frustrations resulting from vast socio-economic inequalities... more During the course of 2015 /2016, the frustrations resulting from vast socio-economic inequalities found (and is still finding) an outlet in the national student protests for free higher education in South Africa. Under the banner of “#feesmustfall”, multiple-layers of advantage and disadvantage, of access and non-access, of inclusion and exclusion became apparent –prompting for the need of a much deeper understanding of South Africans’ lived realities of socio-economic inequalities, as well as the obstacles and aids to social mobility.
To this end, this paper - making use of the IJR's 2015 South African Reconciliation Barometer data - explores perceptions of South Africans on access to resources and advantage / disadvantages - including education, finance, groups of people and geographical separation - to achieve their own goals.
EISA: South African Elections 2014 Update 9, Aug 2014
“Schools are on the front line of armed conflicts, with classrooms,
teachers and pupils seen as... more “Schools are on the front line of armed conflicts, with classrooms,
teachers and pupils seen as legitimate targets”
Schools, institutions to educate and develop citizens, are often targeted during periods of violent/armed conflict and used as political battlefields. This paper highlights underreported challenges schools and education systems face during and after periods of armed conflict. Eastern Chad is used as a case in point. Not only were educational institutions severely negatively affected during Chad’s recent conflict period (2005 – 2010), but schools still struggle to deliver positive learning outcomes after peace agreements were signed in 2010. Declining passing rates, clear inequalities and a lack in educational resources may further cause divisions and under-development amidst looming tensions in the area. Schools, where peace and development can be fostered, in Chad have served not only as battlefields, but as political playfields with dire consequences for its civilians.
SUNScholar, Dec 2013
Comparative studies investigating predictors of political participation in new democracies are ra... more Comparative studies investigating predictors of political participation in new democracies are rare. This study addresses an identified gap in the literature on predictors of political participation in new democracies in order to build on the rich body of literature concerned with political participation and democratic consolidation which already exists, but also to contribute towards understanding the role of citizens and their decisions pertaining to political participation in new democracies.
In order to address the identified gap, this cross-national comparative study uses World Values Survey (2006) data for Chile, Poland, South Africa, and South Korea as part of a cross-sectional secondary analysis aimed at ascertaining what predictors of political participation can be identified for these new democracies.
Drawing primarily from studies by Shin (1999) and Dalton (2008) which used the Civic Voluntarism Model by Verba, Schlozman and Brady (1995) as theoretical framework, predictors of political participation considered in this study include: personal resources (level of education and self-reported social class), political engagement and motivation (political interest and left-right political ideology), group membership and networks, as well as demographic attributes (age, gender and size of town). Forms of political participation investigated include: voting as conventional form of participation; and boycotts, petitions and demonstrations as forms of political protest behaviour. The relationships between the possible predictors of participation and forms of political participation were determined by multiple regression analysis.
The main findings by this study are that political interest is an important predictor of voting and political protest behaviour; age is a strong predictor of voting; and group membership has a greater impact on political protest behaviour than on voting.
On 12 July 2013, Sierra Leone’s president, Dr Ernest Koroma, launched the ‘Agenda for Prosperity’... more On 12 July 2013, Sierra Leone’s president, Dr Ernest Koroma, launched the ‘Agenda for Prosperity’ (AfP). This agenda serves as the roadmap for the next five years, guiding the country to meet its goal “of becoming a middle income country and donor nation within the next 25 to 50 years.” The AfP follows on the ‘Agenda for Change’ (AfC), a document which served as roadmap for the country from 2007 to 2012 to combat poverty as part of its post-conflict peacebuilding process in the aftermath of a decade of civil war. Furthermore, the country is about to “graduate” from the peacebuilding agenda of the United Nations (UN) in March 2014. Has sustainable peace been built and can Sierra Leone afford to focus its policy efforts on prosperity?
"In July 2013 the president of South Africa, Jacob Zuma, signed into law the Prevention and Comba... more "In July 2013 the president of South Africa, Jacob Zuma, signed into law the Prevention and Combating of Trafficking in Persons Bill. South Africa now, for the first time, has one statute comprehensively addressing human trafficking enabling it to fulfil its international commitments to combat human trafficking – particularly in terms of the United Nations (UN).
However, enacting a bill does not ensure the eradication of human trafficking. Human trafficking is more than just a matter of law and crime. What is missing in many discussions on ways to combat the scourge of human trafficking is the understanding and addressing of the root causes of this atrocity. This paper explores some of the measures already in place to combat trafficking in South Africa and asserts that a greater emphasis on human security concerns may aid the country’s attempt to address modern day slavery."
On 9 October 2013, Transparency International (TI) launched a report, Corruption and Peacekeeping... more On 9 October 2013, Transparency International (TI) launched a report, Corruption and Peacekeeping: Strengthening Peacekeeping and the United Nations, stating that corruption undermines the effectiveness of peacekeeping operations. The report calls for systems to be put in place in order to curb corruption, as well as for focused debates inside and outside of the UN to be had in order to strengthen peacekeeping operations.
“There is sense among peacekeeping and foreign policy professionals that – because corruption is difficult – it is better to adapt and to cope with it than to recognize it more formally and address it,” according to the report.This paper looks at why this is a “difficult” topic and what discussions can be had to possibly strengthen peace processes in Africa.
Mail & Guardian: Thought Leader, Jun 12, 2012
As part of the 2011 State of the Nation address, President Zuma claimed, “Our goal is clear. We w... more As part of the 2011 State of the Nation address, President Zuma claimed, “Our goal is clear. We want to have a country…where the quality of life is high.” His statement ties in with the South African government’s vision of constructing South Africa as a developmental state, which frames the agenda for governance and the approach to economic policies with a central role for the state in addressing socio-economic challenges, enhancing economic growth and reducing unemployment. However, simply labelling South Africa as “developmental” does not make it so.
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Papers by Elnari Potgieter
towards interracial marriages are regarded as an indicator that helps us understand how far South Africans have come in terms of integration and addressing prejudices.
This paper explores attitudes towards inter-racial marriages using data from the South African Reconciliation Barometer (SARB) from 2003-2015. Approval of interracial marriages – in particular,
in terms of a close relative marrying someone from another race group as portrayed through SARB data from 2003–2015 – has been slow to adjust. Some positive change (albeit incremental) in terms of approval of a close relative marrying a person from another race group has happened – as can be seen in a decrease in disapproval, as well as an increase in neutral responses.
But it is the outcomes of the election that provide the most compelling story. Any search for a catch all -grand narrative emerging from this election however, is likely to be no narrative at all. What this election tells, is a story of significant specificity and diversity across different spatial areas emerging.
It is a combined story of continuity, consolidation and change.
The party settled on a black woman, Thoko Didiza with sufficient administrative and management experience (a former cabinet Minister) who would both suite the candidate criteria the party defined as standards for its nominee's, but more importantly, was someone who rose above the factionalism that appears to have become endemic within the regional structures of the Tshwane ANC. This did not sit well with the regional party structures - who in open rebellion against a set of nomination rules mutually agreed upon by the party - embarked on a five day protest culminating in millions of Rands of damage to public and private property, and five unfortunate deaths. For the ANC, and the regional ANC in particular, these events had a disastrous impact on its electoral performance.
Did this cost the ANC its clear majority in the Tshwane Metro Council?
Evidently, in the lead up to the elections, the ANC's own members and core support base in Tshwane did not accept what they viewed as the imposition of a "neutral" or compromise candidate as Mayor nominee. They suggested that they would "punish the ANC" through a "stay-away" from the polls or for voting for an opposition party. This was no idle threat. It is what they did.
But the stay away factor has perhaps, been overstated especially in the traditionally ANC supporting areas (what we call the five hotspots) of Atteridgeville, Soshanguve, Mabopane, Mamelodi and Hammanskraal, where voter turnout remained similar to turnout levels from 2011, and in some cases even increased. This is counter to the pre-election intuitive expectation that there would be dramatically lower voter turnout in these areas compared to 2011, due to the ANC's factionalism and the threat of ANC voters to stay away.
This public dialogue paper was used to foster discussion on the importance and the role of the media in a democratic South Africa, as well as to consider how citizens engage with diverse sources of political information
the adoption of the new Constitution of South Africa that same year, the IJR's SARB Project identified this period as an opportune time to gauge the South African public’s opinion of the Constitution, the institutions charged with the mandate to uphold, protect and defend it, and some of the rights detailed in the document.
To this end, the SARB project conducted a mobile survey. This special briefing paper reports on the findings in this regard.
To this end, this paper - making use of the IJR's 2015 South African Reconciliation Barometer data - explores perceptions of South Africans on access to resources and advantage / disadvantages - including education, finance, groups of people and geographical separation - to achieve their own goals.
teachers and pupils seen as legitimate targets”
Schools, institutions to educate and develop citizens, are often targeted during periods of violent/armed conflict and used as political battlefields. This paper highlights underreported challenges schools and education systems face during and after periods of armed conflict. Eastern Chad is used as a case in point. Not only were educational institutions severely negatively affected during Chad’s recent conflict period (2005 – 2010), but schools still struggle to deliver positive learning outcomes after peace agreements were signed in 2010. Declining passing rates, clear inequalities and a lack in educational resources may further cause divisions and under-development amidst looming tensions in the area. Schools, where peace and development can be fostered, in Chad have served not only as battlefields, but as political playfields with dire consequences for its civilians.
In order to address the identified gap, this cross-national comparative study uses World Values Survey (2006) data for Chile, Poland, South Africa, and South Korea as part of a cross-sectional secondary analysis aimed at ascertaining what predictors of political participation can be identified for these new democracies.
Drawing primarily from studies by Shin (1999) and Dalton (2008) which used the Civic Voluntarism Model by Verba, Schlozman and Brady (1995) as theoretical framework, predictors of political participation considered in this study include: personal resources (level of education and self-reported social class), political engagement and motivation (political interest and left-right political ideology), group membership and networks, as well as demographic attributes (age, gender and size of town). Forms of political participation investigated include: voting as conventional form of participation; and boycotts, petitions and demonstrations as forms of political protest behaviour. The relationships between the possible predictors of participation and forms of political participation were determined by multiple regression analysis.
The main findings by this study are that political interest is an important predictor of voting and political protest behaviour; age is a strong predictor of voting; and group membership has a greater impact on political protest behaviour than on voting.
However, enacting a bill does not ensure the eradication of human trafficking. Human trafficking is more than just a matter of law and crime. What is missing in many discussions on ways to combat the scourge of human trafficking is the understanding and addressing of the root causes of this atrocity. This paper explores some of the measures already in place to combat trafficking in South Africa and asserts that a greater emphasis on human security concerns may aid the country’s attempt to address modern day slavery."
“There is sense among peacekeeping and foreign policy professionals that – because corruption is difficult – it is better to adapt and to cope with it than to recognize it more formally and address it,” according to the report.This paper looks at why this is a “difficult” topic and what discussions can be had to possibly strengthen peace processes in Africa.
towards interracial marriages are regarded as an indicator that helps us understand how far South Africans have come in terms of integration and addressing prejudices.
This paper explores attitudes towards inter-racial marriages using data from the South African Reconciliation Barometer (SARB) from 2003-2015. Approval of interracial marriages – in particular,
in terms of a close relative marrying someone from another race group as portrayed through SARB data from 2003–2015 – has been slow to adjust. Some positive change (albeit incremental) in terms of approval of a close relative marrying a person from another race group has happened – as can be seen in a decrease in disapproval, as well as an increase in neutral responses.
But it is the outcomes of the election that provide the most compelling story. Any search for a catch all -grand narrative emerging from this election however, is likely to be no narrative at all. What this election tells, is a story of significant specificity and diversity across different spatial areas emerging.
It is a combined story of continuity, consolidation and change.
The party settled on a black woman, Thoko Didiza with sufficient administrative and management experience (a former cabinet Minister) who would both suite the candidate criteria the party defined as standards for its nominee's, but more importantly, was someone who rose above the factionalism that appears to have become endemic within the regional structures of the Tshwane ANC. This did not sit well with the regional party structures - who in open rebellion against a set of nomination rules mutually agreed upon by the party - embarked on a five day protest culminating in millions of Rands of damage to public and private property, and five unfortunate deaths. For the ANC, and the regional ANC in particular, these events had a disastrous impact on its electoral performance.
Did this cost the ANC its clear majority in the Tshwane Metro Council?
Evidently, in the lead up to the elections, the ANC's own members and core support base in Tshwane did not accept what they viewed as the imposition of a "neutral" or compromise candidate as Mayor nominee. They suggested that they would "punish the ANC" through a "stay-away" from the polls or for voting for an opposition party. This was no idle threat. It is what they did.
But the stay away factor has perhaps, been overstated especially in the traditionally ANC supporting areas (what we call the five hotspots) of Atteridgeville, Soshanguve, Mabopane, Mamelodi and Hammanskraal, where voter turnout remained similar to turnout levels from 2011, and in some cases even increased. This is counter to the pre-election intuitive expectation that there would be dramatically lower voter turnout in these areas compared to 2011, due to the ANC's factionalism and the threat of ANC voters to stay away.
This public dialogue paper was used to foster discussion on the importance and the role of the media in a democratic South Africa, as well as to consider how citizens engage with diverse sources of political information
the adoption of the new Constitution of South Africa that same year, the IJR's SARB Project identified this period as an opportune time to gauge the South African public’s opinion of the Constitution, the institutions charged with the mandate to uphold, protect and defend it, and some of the rights detailed in the document.
To this end, the SARB project conducted a mobile survey. This special briefing paper reports on the findings in this regard.
To this end, this paper - making use of the IJR's 2015 South African Reconciliation Barometer data - explores perceptions of South Africans on access to resources and advantage / disadvantages - including education, finance, groups of people and geographical separation - to achieve their own goals.
teachers and pupils seen as legitimate targets”
Schools, institutions to educate and develop citizens, are often targeted during periods of violent/armed conflict and used as political battlefields. This paper highlights underreported challenges schools and education systems face during and after periods of armed conflict. Eastern Chad is used as a case in point. Not only were educational institutions severely negatively affected during Chad’s recent conflict period (2005 – 2010), but schools still struggle to deliver positive learning outcomes after peace agreements were signed in 2010. Declining passing rates, clear inequalities and a lack in educational resources may further cause divisions and under-development amidst looming tensions in the area. Schools, where peace and development can be fostered, in Chad have served not only as battlefields, but as political playfields with dire consequences for its civilians.
In order to address the identified gap, this cross-national comparative study uses World Values Survey (2006) data for Chile, Poland, South Africa, and South Korea as part of a cross-sectional secondary analysis aimed at ascertaining what predictors of political participation can be identified for these new democracies.
Drawing primarily from studies by Shin (1999) and Dalton (2008) which used the Civic Voluntarism Model by Verba, Schlozman and Brady (1995) as theoretical framework, predictors of political participation considered in this study include: personal resources (level of education and self-reported social class), political engagement and motivation (political interest and left-right political ideology), group membership and networks, as well as demographic attributes (age, gender and size of town). Forms of political participation investigated include: voting as conventional form of participation; and boycotts, petitions and demonstrations as forms of political protest behaviour. The relationships between the possible predictors of participation and forms of political participation were determined by multiple regression analysis.
The main findings by this study are that political interest is an important predictor of voting and political protest behaviour; age is a strong predictor of voting; and group membership has a greater impact on political protest behaviour than on voting.
However, enacting a bill does not ensure the eradication of human trafficking. Human trafficking is more than just a matter of law and crime. What is missing in many discussions on ways to combat the scourge of human trafficking is the understanding and addressing of the root causes of this atrocity. This paper explores some of the measures already in place to combat trafficking in South Africa and asserts that a greater emphasis on human security concerns may aid the country’s attempt to address modern day slavery."
“There is sense among peacekeeping and foreign policy professionals that – because corruption is difficult – it is better to adapt and to cope with it than to recognize it more formally and address it,” according to the report.This paper looks at why this is a “difficult” topic and what discussions can be had to possibly strengthen peace processes in Africa.