Papers by Ricardo G Barcelona
Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2017
Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2017
Análisis del Real Instituto Elcano ( ARI ), 2015
ABSTRACT ARI 22/2015 (versión en español) 14 de abril de 2015 9ersión RULJLQDOen inglés: Correcti... more ABSTRACT ARI 22/2015 (versión en español) 14 de abril de 2015 9ersión RULJLQDOen inglés: Correcting a mutual ignorance: rediscovering the 3KLOLSSLQHV as a gateway to ASEAN *. Tema El foco del crecimiento asiático –ASEAN y Asia Oriental– mantiene fuertes lazos comerciales con la UE, EEUU y Japón. Pero Filipinas y España compartieron cuatro siglos de experiencia colonial y eso es algo que debería traducirse en una sólida relación poscolonial. Paradójicamente, el desconocimiento mutuo de las comunidades empresariales de los dos países ha agravado la retirada de España de Filipinas, culminando en una relación económica irrelevante. Resumen A la hora de explicar el insignificante papel de España en Asia, los expertos suelen alegar los siguientes obstáculos a una presencia española más extensa: la distancia geográfica, trabas burocráticas, diferencias culturales y abundantes oportunidades de negocio en Europa. Dichas opiniones siguen guiando la acción estratégica de los empresarios españoles a pesar de que la realidad podría ser muy diferente. Así, ha surgido una paradoja comercial cuyo fruto ha sido la poca importancia española en las relaciones comerciales poscoloniales. En nuestro análisis atribuimos esa paradoja comercial al desconocimiento, tanto de los gestores españoles como de los filipinos, de todo el potencial para la colaboración que se les ofrece. Los empresarios siguen implementando estrategias que no se adaptan a la realidad del mercado y hacen peligrar la viabilidad de sus operaciones. Para revertir esta lamentable situación, recomendamos tres líneas de acción: (1) centrarse en potenciar fortalezas complementarias para así crear asociaciones efectiva; (2) crear politicas y mecanismos para desmantelar las barreras legales y administrativas al comercio internacional; (3) profundizar en el entendimiento mutuo y reforzar las capacidades a traves de una formacion orientada a la ASEAN y mediante encuentros del esctor publico y privado.
Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Mar 1, 2015
Academia letters, Jul 19, 2021
Lumpy energy commitments under an oligopoly alter the market strength of rival firms, and this el... more Lumpy energy commitments under an oligopoly alter the market strength of rival firms, and this elicits responses that are seldom cooperative. Following option games reasoning, this chapter presents analyses of how symmetric or asymmetric adoption of power technologies would achieve outcomes that differ from net present values (NPVs) under specified market scenarios. Through the interacting effects of prices, volumes, and costs, often altered by rival firms’ actions, renewables alters portfolio values by eroding power prices. The simulations examine how market positions are altered when rival firms take symmetric or asymmetric diversification strategies. To make option games accessible to managers, relevant intuitions are presented, as well as a conceptual approach, to help to quantify feasible outcomes.
This chapter shows how portfolio values differ from NPVs when decisions are taken under condition... more This chapter shows how portfolio values differ from NPVs when decisions are taken under conditions of managerial flexibility. Applying the Portfolio Strategic Options approach, the certainty of payoffs is traded off against the prospect of variable, albeit higher, returns when prices are high. Through a discovery process with adaptive actions, technology choices are better aligned to the managers’ risk-payoff preferences by choosing from amongst these generic supply strategies: (a) indexing energy costs and power prices to achieve predictability in payoffs; (b) increasing renewables with the expectation of rising prices; or (c) hedge payoffs by balancing fossil fuels-based supplies with renewables. This dynamic approach guides managerial actions to recognise the realities of inherently volatile energy markets and adaptively profit from uncertainties.
Jurnal perencanaan pembangunan, May 11, 2019
The belief that resource abundance equates to energy security is roundly debunked in Indonesian g... more The belief that resource abundance equates to energy security is roundly debunked in Indonesian geothermal. Indonesia's copious geothermal reserves remain untapped. Experts cite the usual culprits: unreliable long-term contracts, ambivalent government support, and lukewarm investors investment appetite. In this paper, we argue that the real constraints lie in investors' unresolved contradictions: Quick to complain about government's unreliable and shifting stance, investors look to the same counter-party to guarantee their "iron-clad power purchase agreements (PPAs)" to secure their returns. To unleash Indonesia's geothermal potential, we propose adopting slim-hole drilling technologies to reduce costs, while facilitating sequential commitments. This could enhance strategic flexibility that lowers costs of well failures, while facilitating adoption of resource insurance to de-risk geothermal exploration and drilling. To sustain these benefits, "cheap" energy policy needs to be phased out to allow a restructured PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara's (PLN) to flourish by embracing commercially viable strategic approaches.
Renewable Energy Law and Policy Review, 2012
Subsidies and feed-in tariffs have become preconditions for wide scale renewable energy deploymen... more Subsidies and feed-in tariffs have become preconditions for wide scale renewable energy deployment. However, outcomes after more than twenty years of generous technology-specific support are diametrically opposed to policy objectives. This paper examines the causes of this green paradox, and differentiates subsidies and CO2 tax's influence on investment decisions. I posit that subsidies choose a priori technology champions that ignore technology obsolescence risks. In contrast, CO2 taxes provide pricing signals that inform exit decisions from polluting technologies. By leaving firms to decide on their technological responses, CO2 tax penalties could encourage low carbon technology innovations.
The Nazcan lines in Peru, comprising drawings on the desert floor, continue to amaze. Scholars an... more The Nazcan lines in Peru, comprising drawings on the desert floor, continue to amaze. Scholars and experts are divided about the ends that these lines served. One version suggests that the Nazcans built the "monument" as an offering to their gods, to protect themselves against nature's forces that ravaged mere mortals' lives, while honouring their monarch for the abundance that they were given. In short, the Nazcans looked to the stars for salvation and attributed abundance to human achievements, while blaming nature for their misfortunes. This narrative is eerily familiar. Norway's premier, Alexander Stubb, blamed external forces (i.e. Apple) for killing Nokia, and with it the country's technology and forestry industries. When Nokia was riding high, managers scoffed at Steve Jobs's venture into smart phones as Apple's folly. In this instance, Apple has the last laugh … at the moment. These narratives highlight contrasting world views among managers. The dominance of net present values (NPV) in capital budgeting premises strategic actions on managerial omniscience, from whence payoffs and value emanate. Managers commit to an investment as a one-off decision, then sit back and hope for the best. Simplistic as it may sound, this is the core of NPV-based reasoning and decision-making. The outcomes are far from satisfactory, leading Paddy Miller, author of Innovation business as usual, to ask these questions: Why do things never turn out as they were projected? And is energy strategy always going to be a tale of unfulfilled promises? The uncertain and volatile nature of energy markets require a different narrative. Option-games reasoning calls for an adaptive approach that conforms to Avinash Dixit's formulation: "Managerial flexibility allows firms to cherry pick to make investments only when conditions are relatively
Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2017
Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2017
Academic research often concludes that mergers, acquisitions, or divestments have mixed records i... more Academic research often concludes that mergers, acquisitions, or divestments have mixed records in creating firm value. In this chapter, we take a real option logic and intuitively examine how a transaction could be seen as (a) achieving premium by gaining scale and portfolio optimisation (i.e. BG–RDS merger); (b) creating options through serial acquisitions or divestments (i.e. Serica Energy); or (c) surviving obsolescing bargain and recycling cash after Argentina’s sequestration of YPF from Repsol. In a number of these cases, individual transactions may appear to be value eroding. However, when divestments are viewed as reversals of prior commitments, followed by reinvesting the cash, the series of transactions is in reality a process of creating (i.e. selling to raise cash) or exercising (i.e. acquiring) the real options that are embedded in each asset. These real options are valued within the context of the firm’s portfolio.
Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2017
Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2017
Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2017
Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, 2017
Social Science Research Network, 2019
The inefficiency of Kenya's fuel market, and its consequences are obvious. What are not obvious a... more The inefficiency of Kenya's fuel market, and its consequences are obvious. What are not obvious are the bases of the diagnoses of the problems, or the market niches and the feasible profitable approaches that these may create. Any examination based on Kenya's desire for energy selfsufficiency and supply autarky will lead to blind alleys, given the absence of indigenous resources, limited viable substitutes, and market disconnectedness. Kenyan energy aspirations need reframing from illusions of supply autarky to working on feasible solutions. Such feasible approaches and the opportunities that they create lie in these areas: infrastructure that will enhance market connectivity and improve efficiency in logistics; the creation of institutions that will facilitate the operations of functional competitive markets; and open borders to facilitate trade within East Africa, with Kenya playing the role of an energy trading hub.
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Papers by Ricardo G Barcelona