Henrik Gråtrud
I am a research fellow at FFI and a doctoral student at the University of Oslo. My Ph.D. project focuses on jihadism in Jordan. I have also written about the conflict in Libya and Islamic State propaganda.
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Papers by Henrik Gråtrud
How can vulnerable states adjacent to countries embroiled in civil war avoid conflict contagion? Jordan has all the classic attributes highlighted in the literature as creating vulnerabilities susceptible to spillover. It adjoins Syria and Iraq where jihadists have operated freely. It has a weak economy, refugees pouring in from adjacent conflicts and is home to hundreds—if not thousands—of jihadists. Moreover, jihadists consider the Jordanian regime to be traitors—who conspire with the enemies of Islam—and they want to replace it with an Islamic state. However, as we show, very few jihadist attacks have happened in Jordan. We test three hypotheses for the limited spillover. Our analysis suggests a state policy that we dub “calibrated repression” is the most significant explanation. This means that Jordan protects against spillover by repressing jihadist attempts at infiltrating the kingdom and clamping down on local terrorist cells linked to the Islamic State while keeping other domestic jihadist elements in check through co-optation. The regime restrains the use of force against less acute threats and displays some leniency towards radicals when the situation allows. Our findings speak to the broader literature on spillover and offer insights into the understudied topic of mechanisms limiting spillover in high-risk environments.
sterkeste aktøren i Libya. Hvordan klarte han å manøvrere seg frem til en
maktposisjon etter den libyske revolusjonen? Hva er hans langsiktige mål, og hvordan har det påvirket situasjonen i Libya? Hvordan vil aktiviteten hans påvirke situasjonen i landet i tiden fremover?
Although jihadi nasheeds play an important role in the Islamic State's propaganda, there is scant literature on the topic. This article is an exploratory study on seventeen Islamic State nasheeds released between December 2013 and March 2015. The main argument is that Islamic State nasheeds are effective messaging tools because they focus on a limited number of themes that have broad appeal among Muslims. The nasheeds differ from other Islamic State propaganda in their almost exclusive focus on war and fighting, rather than on the softer sides of life in the Islamic State.
How can vulnerable states adjacent to countries embroiled in civil war avoid conflict contagion? Jordan has all the classic attributes highlighted in the literature as creating vulnerabilities susceptible to spillover. It adjoins Syria and Iraq where jihadists have operated freely. It has a weak economy, refugees pouring in from adjacent conflicts and is home to hundreds—if not thousands—of jihadists. Moreover, jihadists consider the Jordanian regime to be traitors—who conspire with the enemies of Islam—and they want to replace it with an Islamic state. However, as we show, very few jihadist attacks have happened in Jordan. We test three hypotheses for the limited spillover. Our analysis suggests a state policy that we dub “calibrated repression” is the most significant explanation. This means that Jordan protects against spillover by repressing jihadist attempts at infiltrating the kingdom and clamping down on local terrorist cells linked to the Islamic State while keeping other domestic jihadist elements in check through co-optation. The regime restrains the use of force against less acute threats and displays some leniency towards radicals when the situation allows. Our findings speak to the broader literature on spillover and offer insights into the understudied topic of mechanisms limiting spillover in high-risk environments.
sterkeste aktøren i Libya. Hvordan klarte han å manøvrere seg frem til en
maktposisjon etter den libyske revolusjonen? Hva er hans langsiktige mål, og hvordan har det påvirket situasjonen i Libya? Hvordan vil aktiviteten hans påvirke situasjonen i landet i tiden fremover?
Although jihadi nasheeds play an important role in the Islamic State's propaganda, there is scant literature on the topic. This article is an exploratory study on seventeen Islamic State nasheeds released between December 2013 and March 2015. The main argument is that Islamic State nasheeds are effective messaging tools because they focus on a limited number of themes that have broad appeal among Muslims. The nasheeds differ from other Islamic State propaganda in their almost exclusive focus on war and fighting, rather than on the softer sides of life in the Islamic State.